CITIC Securities Futures: Agricultural Products Morning Report March 16

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Corn: Neutral to Slightly Bullish

1. Market Performance: Last week, the May corn contract continued to fluctuate mildly upward, but the upward momentum weakened. The main May contract closed at 2,385 yuan/ton. During the week, futures prices surged then retreated, with the March 9 main contract reaching a high of 2,443 yuan/ton, setting a new stage peak, before entering a period of consolidation.

2. Spot and Channel Situation: Over the next two days, China Grain Reserves Corporation branches plan to stockpile a total of 460,000 tons, marking a small peak in stockpiling. As of last Friday (3.13), nationwide corn deep-processing inventories stood at 3.377 million tons, continuing a significant downward trend from the high of 5.438 million tons in early February, with a total decline of 37.8%. The replenishment window is closing. Regarding purchase prices, low inventories combined with persistently low delivery volumes have forced deep-processing enterprises to passively raise prices, expanding the range of price increases: the average nationwide corn price is 2,413 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week; mainstream purchase prices for deep-processing enterprises in Shandong are between 2,360-2,460 yuan/ton, with some reaching over 1.2 yuan per jin; in Northeast China, the main purchase price for dried潮粮 (dried grain) is between 2,200-2,320 yuan/ton.

3. Market Focus & Summary of Views: Limited residual grain at the grassroots level combined with policy support suggests short-term stability or slight strength in corn prices. However, as weather improves, volume may gradually increase, and profit pressures on deep-processing enterprises could limit price hikes. Feed demand remains weak, and the pace of future rises may slow. Support levels are at 2,350 yuan/ton, resistance at 2,420 yuan/ton. The overall outlook remains mildly bullish, with attention to policy grain releases, wheat substitutes, and import price changes this week.

Soybean Meal: Neutral to Slightly Bearish

1. Geopolitical trading has cooled marginally, with CBOT soybeans opening lower overnight. Reuters reports that US-China trade talks discussed the possibility of China increasing US agricultural imports, awaiting further updates. Additionally, short-term overseas market focus is on farmers’ spring planting intentions and US biofuel blending obligations.

2. Recently, continuous soybean meal contracts have strengthened due to cost and logistics factors. Before the phase of expected tight supply in March-April is disproved, limited downside space for the May contract is expected, but port congestion pressures may transfer to longer-dated contracts.

Summary of Views: A decline in US markets may exert downward pressure on soybean meal valuations within the day. Watch the 3,000-3,100 yuan/ton range for the May contract.

Eggs: Neutral

Main producing areas see rising spot prices. Hebei Guantao’s spot price is 2.98 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Although current stock levels remain high, supply pressure persists, but the trend of low new production and accelerated culling is gradually establishing, with marginal improvement in supply-demand balance in Q2 2026. As capacity pressures ease marginally, there may be structural buying opportunities within the year. Rising costs of corn and soybean meal have pushed the cost of feed per jin of eggs to 3.11 yuan, providing solid support for seasonal contracts.

Summary of Views: Consider deploying long positions on contracts during the late second quarter and the peak third quarter on dips.

Pork: Neutral

Live pig prices fluctuate slightly. Yesterday, the average spot price in main producing areas was 10.09 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. Weak demand has caused slow sales and passive weight gain. The market repeatedly adjusts around the key 10 yuan level. In early March, secondary fattening animals have been gradually introduced, with noticeable restocking in Liaoning, Hebei, and other provinces, with increases around 10%. The average price for weaned piglets is 316 yuan per head, down 51 yuan from the pre-Lunar New Year peak, a 13.90% decline. The downward trend in piglet prices may accelerate the reduction of breeding capacity.

Summary of Views: Short-term prospects remain bleak; focus on capacity reduction driven by long-term trends, and consider buying on dips.

Risk Warning: This information is produced by the research and development team of the futures company, sourced from publicly available data. CITIC Construction Investment Futures strives for accuracy but does not guarantee the completeness or correctness of the information. Trading based on this information is at your own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider individual client objectives, financial situations, or needs. Clients should determine whether any opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for their specific circumstances. (Wei Xin, Futures Trading Consultant ID: Z0014814; Liu Hao, Futures Trading Consultant ID: Z0021277; Deng Haoran, Futures Trading Consultant ID: Z0023357)

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