Huatai Securities: Aviation Supply-Demand Improvement Logic Unchanged, Still Bullish on Economic Recovery from Bottom

SadMoneyMeow · 2026-03-17T04:40:08+00:00

Yicai AI Brief: A Huatai Securities research report points out that in the short term, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and oil price trends. However, the aviation industry remains in a supply-demand improvement cycle, coupled with "anti-involution," and continues to maintain a positive outlook on the medium to long-term sentiment turning upward from the bottom. On the demand side, the 2026 Spring Festival travel data sets a good tone for the year's demand, with Spring Festival 40-day passenger load factor increasing 1.3pct year-over-year on a lunar calendar basis, and domestic economy class average ticket prices increasing 3.9% year-over-year on a lunar calendar basis. Looking ahead, factors such as business travel recovery, rapid growth in inbound and outbound tourism, silver economy, family trips, and student spring/autumn holidays may drive continued strong performance on the demand side. Meanwhile, industry supply growth is expected to remain low, with the Big Three airlines plus Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines net retiring 10 aircraft in January-February, declining 0.3% compared to end of 2025. Furthermore, according to the 2026 summer-autumn flight schedule, domestic flight time slots decreased 2.7% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive flight season with year-over-year declines.Daily Economic News

SadMoneyMeow

2026-03-17 04:40:08

Everyday AI Express, Huatai Securities research report points out that in the short term, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and oil price trends. However, the aviation industry is still in a cycle of supply and demand improvement, combined with “anti-involution,” and remains optimistic about the bottom-up recovery in the medium to long term. Regarding demand, the 2026 Spring Festival travel data sets a good tone for the whole year’s demand, with a 1.3% increase in passenger load factor during the 40-day Spring Festival travel period compared to the lunar calendar, and a 3.9% increase in the average ticket price for domestic economy class during the same period. Looking ahead, factors such as a rebound in business travel, rapid growth in inbound and outbound tourism, the silver economy, family travel, and students’ spring/autumn holidays may continue to drive strong demand. Meanwhile, the industry’s supply growth is expected to remain low, with the three major airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines net withdrawing 10 aircraft from February to March, a 0.3% decrease compared to the end of 2025. Additionally, according to the 2026 summer and autumn flight schedule, the number of domestic flight hours has decreased by 2.7%, marking four consecutive seasons of year-over-year decline.

Daily Economic News

(Editor: He Chong)

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