Caution: Run now or there's no way out! Bitcoin has likely topped out, and the situation ahead is extremely dire.

1. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin's current trend is a very classic descending flag pattern with upside consolidation. Top levels at 72K—>74K—>76K, bottom levels at 60K—>63K—>65.5K, the third wave of rallies has completed. Is a crash about to begin?

2. I think the probability is really not small. The top of this round of rallies is very likely around 76K or a false breakout around 78K. Based on the trendline, it will pull back to around 69K. If it breaks below the ascending trendline, this could very well be the start of another wave of selling, potentially dropping below 60K or even lower.

3. We shorted Bitcoin 3 times at 74K, took profits twice, and this third short is currently right around our cost price. I also placed short orders around 77K for averaging down. The situation looks good, and the price action is proceeding exactly as we expected. I see some people panicking, but there's no need to. The price is still at 74K. Those who should panic are the ones who FOMO'd in at the highs, not us.

4. I think the real trigger for the market will be the Fed's interest rate decision meeting tomorrow at midnight. The probability of bad news is quite high. Plus, with Bitcoin having risen so much in a short time, even without negative catalysts, a normal pullback would still bring significant declines. The 76K level this morning likely was the top, sweeping out most of the short positions, but I'm still placing shorts around 77K conservatively. If it dares to come, I'll dare to take it.