3.17 Perhaps underestimated the severity of the war!

StrawberryIce · 2026-03-17T11:42:35+00:00

Recent market positions remain unchanged, sentiment is depressed, and most investors are experiencing losses. After tech stocks rallied, they quickly pulled back, with limited money-making effects in the market. Global economic division of labor contradictions are intensifying, conflicts are difficult to avoid, and the future of technological revolution may lead to a decline in human labor value, triggering social transformation. Overall market conditions are poor, and it is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now.

StrawberryIce

2026-03-17 11:42:35

Abstract generation in progress

Portfolio Summary
Bai Chuan hasn’t moved; no new positions opened in two days. Let’s see if there’s a rebound. It would be better if it surged and moved away in these two days. Last night, the article was reported and deleted. Please do not follow the stocks, please do not follow the stocks. Surrendering is not shameful! Opening a position means losing! This March has probably been the hardest period since 9.24 this year. It feels like all patterns have failed. I asked around, and most are at a loss.
Market Situation
The GTC conference for tech really turned into a move-up followed by a kill. Yesterday’s rally was a selling point!
Today, the profit-taking effect is concentrated in a few stocks with multiple consecutive limit-ups; other sectors are almost wiped out.

I remember mentioning last week that the narrative around American tech has issues, and the capital market shows signs of a crash. On one hand, many people are pulling out of AI tech. On the other hand, due to the Iran conflict, many Middle Eastern sovereign funds want to withdraw, but the Americans are forcing them to hold. Recently, I probably won’t touch tech stocks anymore.

Conflict is Unavoidable

Global Economic Division of Labor and Contradictions
In the past, the US, as a consumer country, relied on credit expansion, while Eastern countries, as producers, provided cheap labor and industrial capacity, forming an international division of labor. Many people have a misconception; they should know that what truly supports the dollar’s credit isn’t the petrodollar system but Eastern industrial goods. However, this relationship isn’t infinitely sustainable. As Eastern countries grow stronger, they start competing with the US on profit margins.

When monetary expansion and technological progress can no longer hide declining profit margins and imbalanced division of labor, the old production relations can no longer be maintained. At this point, hot war becomes an inevitable option. Production relations determine ideology, geopolitics, and social class structure. Even if Iran or big powers kneel, and China and the US decide who wins, conflict cannot be avoided—either through breakthroughs in productive forces or physical elimination of excess.

At this time, people hope for technological revolutions (like artificial intelligence), but AI might reduce the value of human labor in material production. Elon Musk said that money might disappear in the future—that’s the idea. Perhaps then, communism with distribution according to need will truly arrive. Changes in production relations could also trigger the next problem—social revolution!

Maybe everyone has underestimated the duration of this war.
Maybe everyone has underestimated the determination of both sides in this game.

Recently, the market has also been poor. I will hold off on making moves and pause posting orders.

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