Today I went long on the dragon bond convertible, feeling a bit panicked.

PortfolioAlert · 2026-03-17T12:18:33+00:00

There are 0.33 years remaining (expires July 13, 2026)Redemption price at maturity is 115 yuanPremium rate is slightly over 20%, not particularly outrageousRemaining size is 946 million yuanBond rating is 3BAs of September 30, 2025, the company's cash balance is 518 million yuan2025 projected loss of 6.2-7.6 billion yuanFundamentals are a complete messRepayment seems very unlikelyDouyin says default probability exceeds 80%The risk is hugeCould there be another downward adjustment before maturity?Feeling a bit anxious

PortfolioAlert

2026-03-17 12:18:33

There are 0.33 years (July 13, 2026) until maturity
Redemption price at maturity: 115 yuan
Premium rate is a little over 20%, not particularly outrageous
Remaining scale: 946 million yuan
Bond rating: 3B
As of September 30, 2025, the company’s cash balance is 518 million yuan
Projected loss for 2025: 620-760 million yuan
Fundamentals are a mess
Repayment seems unlikely
Doubao says the default probability is over 80%
The risk is very high
Can there be a downgrade before maturity?
Feeling a bit anxious

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