# Evening Thoughts from Er Bing

ETH currently has a clear structure. As long as it doesn't break below the bullish flag pattern's lower trend line + 2296 neckline level, there is no risk of a deep pullback.

As long as it holds steady above 2296, the bullish flag pattern will eventually be broken through, and the 2346 resistance above will also be taken down accordingly, challenging the 2386 previous high again.

However, breaking through the 2386 level is extremely difficult.
The reason is simple: this level has already been tested 4 times with upper wicks, and the candle body has never successfully closed above 2386.
Multiple wicks without a breakthrough indicate heavy trapped positions at this level with significant selling pressure. Whenever it approaches the breakeven zone, traders exit, causing repeated rejection.
The daily has broken out of the consolidation box, but has not held steady above 2356.
For ETH to form a rounded bottom, it must break through 2356 with actual body closure and hold steady there. Only then is the rounded bottom structure formally established, and targets can see 3063.
If it can't go higher than 2356, all major bullish scenarios are invalidated.

ETH allows pullbacks, but cannot retest below 2160.
Breaking below 2160 means this rebound wave is officially over.

There are only two possible paths from here:
Either continue repeated consolidation;
Or once 2386 is broken through with volume, look directly at 2445 above.

**Trend Baseline**

Only breaking below 2251 would destroy the bullish structure of the red box and open up larger downside, targeting 2162.
Above 2251, the overall bullish structure remains intact—no need to panic.

**Trading Suggestions:**
• Breakout above 2335 with volume: right-side long entry
• Break below 2295 with volume and failed retest: right-side short entry

Focus on volume; use strict stop losses.

**Timeframe Targets**

• Hourly: Hold 2335 → look up at 2386–2445
• 4-Hour: Break below 2290 → look down at 2232–2203

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