Cobalt Prices Surge 160%! Congo's Export Controls Have Already Created 80,000-Ton Supply Gap, Global "Cobalt Shortage" May Persist Until 2030

Due to export restrictions in Congo, the global cobalt market has fallen into a severe shortage, and this situation is expected to continue until the end of this decade.

The commodities trading firm Darton Commodities stated in its latest report that since Congo implemented export restrictions, benchmark cobalt prices have risen by over 160%, with cobalt hydroxide prices more than quadrupling. In 2025, global refined cobalt production is expected to decline by about 20%, marking the first decrease in five years, resulting in a supply gap of over 82,000 tons. Darton predicts that although the gap has narrowed somewhat this year, shortages will persist annually through 2030.

This supply crisis is cascading down the industry chain to downstream markets. Darton warns that as raw material shortages deepen, downward pressure on prices in downstream markets will intensify. Meanwhile, the fragility of the supply chain has prompted industry players to increase investments in product diversification and material substitution, a trend that may suppress demand growth in some end markets over the long term.

Congo Restrictions Reshape Supply Landscape

Congo typically accounts for over 70% of global cobalt supply. In February 2025, the government announced a complete ban on cobalt exports, later shifting in October of the same year to a strict quota system aimed at curbing oversupply and boosting prices.

However, after the ban was replaced with quotas, exports did not immediately resume, and there were significant delays in implementing the new procedures.

Darton’s report states that export controls “pushed the cobalt market into a sharp technical shortage.” Although accumulated inventories from surplus years previously buffered some of the shortage pressure, these reserves are now being structurally depleted.

Prices Surge, Gap Persists

According to data from Fastmarkets Ltd., since the export restrictions were implemented, benchmark cobalt prices have increased by over 160%; cobalt hydroxide, the main product form exported from Congo, has more than tripled in price.

In 2025, global refined cobalt production is projected to decline by about 20% year-over-year, marking the first negative growth in five years, creating a market gap of over 82,000 tons. Darton expects that shortages will continue from 2026 to 2030, although the annual gap may gradually narrow.

In this context, Darton believes Congo may consider moderately relaxing export quotas this year to maximize revenue in a high-price, tight-supply market environment, while avoiding excessive demand suppression.

Potential and Risks of Alternative Sources

To fill the Congo supply gap, the market is turning its attention to Indonesia. Imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)—a cobalt-containing intermediate nickel product—are expected to continue growing.

However, Darton also highlights multiple risks facing Indonesian MHP production, including sulfur supply disruptions, ore availability issues, and environmental compliance pressures, which could limit its potential as a substitute.

Supply Chain Fragility Sparks Structural Reflection

This crisis has profoundly exposed the structural risks of a highly concentrated global cobalt supply chain centered in a single country. Darton notes that the impact of Congo’s export restrictions has accelerated efforts across the industry to diversify product sources and research material substitution.

Cobalt is widely used in batteries, aerospace, and defense sectors. Darton warns that if these substitution trends deepen, they could ultimately suppress demand growth in some end markets over the long term, adding more complex structural variables to this supply crisis.

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