March 17, 2026 Tuesday Review Tomorrow, Find the Focus!

I took a trip to Beijing and found it a bit overwhelming. The water and soil didn’t agree with me, and I also couldn’t get used to the local customs. The market was also continuously sluggish for several days. Today, I returned to Nanjing and hope the market will be better tomorrow! At this time, perhaps I can better understand the saying “One’s environment nurtures one’s character.” The stock market is the same—you come or not, the environment is still there. It all depends on whether you’re suited for it! [Taoguba]

Yesterday, I didn’t do a review. Today’s review starts with a question from a fan. It has multiple meanings: even when trading swing trades, you can lose money; wanting to invest monthly but feeling reluctant; delaying your life plans. He believes this market is about careful consideration before losing money. Every purchase has logic, but in the end, you still lose. Every time you buy, you set a stop-loss, but big losses happen when you don’t stick to it, and so on.

His explanation is a bit messy, but this is the biggest problem most retail investors face now. Over the past year, the main forces have been cultivating retail investors’ swing trading mindset. But after the aerospace development, they specifically target these people. Yi Zhongtian’s real rise only lasted about three months, and most of the time was just back-and-forth. Retail investors see only swing trading. I’ve mentioned before that if the main forces don’t cultivate this, the last group in a bull market will be left holding the bag. The best method is high-low chopping—lurking in a logical sector and then switching to another Yi Zhongtian. But the market isn’t like that—it’s completely bottom-line free!

There’s also an issue with the ranking criteria for fund managers, which is problematic. This leads to clustering, boosting or dragging the market, chasing gains or selling in panic. Everyone buys without hesitation, sells without confidence, and when losses happen, everyone has an excuse. This ultimately results in no one willing to take over the position.

Retail investors then think: let’s chase themes or sentiment. Today, I saw a fan post a chart in the comments—Bona Film. It had two waves of movement last December and February, all driven by A-shares. Do you say the market is logical? Then how did the 2024 computing power CPOs perform? Do you say the market isn’t logical? Then how did the 2025 computing power sector perform? The performance exploded in those three months of 2025, right? This is a question that needs serious thought. A slow bull market doesn’t move like that!

The market always emphasizes a slow bull, advocating against reckless speculation. But who is actually reckless? Currently, the dominant factor is quantitative trading—including today’s volume, which, even with sectors like securities and real estate rising, was still shrinking. At one point, volume was close to 200 billion during the day. Why? Because of high-frequency quantitative trading, which causes changes in trading volume. Quantitative models detect retail sentiment. Once they sense retail investors are unwilling to enter, they have nothing to harvest. These models are not single; multiple people use different models. Ultimately, big fish eat small fish, small fish eat shrimps, and the bottom-tier traders give up entirely. They play on their own, leading to gradually decreasing trading volume, sometimes suddenly shrinking sharply. This pattern can be seen in volume changes: small declines initially, then a sudden large drop—signaling the big players are no longer active. When panic selling occurs without any market surprises, a rebound is likely soon. Today’s situation is exactly that. Many expect a reversal, but the premise is that a rebound must happen first—especially with the influence of quantitative models. It’s like squeezing a wet towel—only when the water is squeezed out is it most advantageous, both psychologically and in terms of chips. This analysis is based on recent market volume data. Tomorrow, I will observe the market’s lower limits and test this new ice point method, as this pattern may become normal.

Quantitative trading will not disappear; it will only pursue profits. It is ultimately built against 99% of people—unless the main forces want retail investors to profit. So don’t ask why most people can’t make money in this market—this setup was designed that way from the start! We are just looking for blind spots in quantitative trading. Compared to time, you need more patience than the models. This is something I’ve recently realized: why do some stocks keep falling? Because ordinary people’s time is limited, but artificial intelligence, in theory, is infinite. However, the people behind AI are limited in time, so current quantitative trading is not yet fully developed. The fully developed quant system has infinite time. The other factor is capital—same principle as time. Retail investors have no advantage in capital, which leads to herd behavior in certain stocks. For short-term trading, the key is how to shed quant funds during herd movements. This is a topic I will think about later—counteracting herd behavior with quant strategies.

Earlier, I mentioned that the market’s biggest risk is a lack of logic. Without logic, retail investors lose their basic confidence in holding stocks. Recently, the most representative sector is Yi Zhongtian. Most people entered after 2024, thinking it was reasonable. But veteran investors are speechless. The theme, like the “Dream 2.0” concept, emerged and was accepted, yet the market responded with A-shares killing it. Even disruptive innovations like film production, which used to require funding, are now accessible to everyone. This is true disruption. Most stocks later are similar to Bona Film. If the market doesn’t recognize these, and these stocks rose from September 24 but not much, do these companies have no value? If A-share companies have no value or meaning, then they should be delisted early—no space taken up, no banners flying. If they have no value, what’s the point of listing?

Furthermore, no industry better illustrates the impact of these tools than media, gaming, and film. But no one applies these tools better than these companies. Isn’t that cost reduction? Are their employees just wooden dolls waiting for disruption? Do they lack innovation? Is there no one in these companies? This is worth pondering.

Here, I borrow an example from a comment in the comment section, which triggered a series of thoughts. I’m not giving stock advice or expressing optimism about media stocks.

Currently, retail investors mainly follow three modes:

1. If you want a main rise, it’s not the right time yet. Usually, the most obvious opportunities appear at the bottom. Many stocks started accumulating before the main rise. Last year’s Yi Zhongtian was like that, but at that time, everyone was in Zhongyi Da and military stocks.
2. If you want to catch a rebound, you need to experiment with stop-losses. Most people try after three dips. Recently, the market had five dips, and it’s still at the bottom. Was it wrong to try when Yi Zhongtian stabilized yesterday? I think not. But the structure led by Yi Zhongtian is wrong—there’s limited space. The market isn’t only Yi Zhongtian!
3. If you want to lurk in swing trades, control your position size and have patience. Short-term fluctuations don’t matter much then. Swing trading is simple but also the hardest—easy because you don’t need to manage it, hard because of position and mindset control. The “Eight Words” for swing trading are enough—just two words: patience and discipline. But vision is important; if you think in years, vision becomes less critical (though still necessary). Focus on the other eight words.

The first two are short-term strategies; the third is long-term. Just compare and align. Quantitative trading profits from volatility. Until it evolves into a complete system, swing trading remains the most reliable approach. It probably won’t fully evolve, but we must guard against it. So, combining swing and short-term trading is the current approach.

Back to today’s market: At 9:30, Jingtou Development opened with a straight-up limit. Based on yesterday’s data, the bidding was stronger. Four questions:

1. Jingtou Development is the only real estate stock I follow. I even participated once. I thought real estate might rally, but on February 25, I failed with Guangming Real Estate, which was the strongest that day. Jingtou Development announced restructuring over the weekend. Did I realize this? Yes. Did I know what the news was? No. Did I buy the strongest stock that day? Yes, in intraday trading. That’s the difference in information.
2. Is this insider trading? Or, in today’s market, should we ignore it or follow it thoroughly? What’s the standard?
3. The real estate sector strengthened at open—does it mean it will lead the sector? Is it necessary to participate? Why did it rise? Don’t look at news; observe capital flow. Who is being stabbed in the back intraday? It’s probably high up.
4. Pattern: sideways with two waves. Recent examples include Falsun and Shunnai. The high point is Falsun. Will future patterns mimic this? Even expand? If it’s a three-wave pattern, where are the signals and points to stop falling?

At 9:31, Anyang Steel surged to the limit. It’s like a good brother to real estate—clean and sharp rebound. Today’s quant trading doesn’t need participation, only reference for market direction. That’s important for future trading.

At 9:34, GCL System Integration hit the limit—related to new energy, specifically photovoltaics. Shunnai and other stocks opened poorly but showed intraday support, hinting at sneak attacks. Later, Yabo also hit the limit. Power sector opened and stabilized within three minutes, with Huadian becoming a new trend. But the funds are too small, and the index didn’t hold long. Power sector stayed strong until after 11 am before retreating.

At 9:40, Haima Auto and auto parts surged to the limit. One reason: auto stocks are rising now. Another: hydrogen energy, with Mengjin Energy’s bidding impressive but not recognized by funds. Jingcheng Shares even hit the limit down.

At the same time, Chitianhua opened high and quickly touched the limit, then retreated, only to recover later. Similar patterns appeared in Jinjingda and other chemical stocks. The same issue: the main stocks are weak.

At 9:53, Aijian Group surged to the limit—focused on internet finance. The opening was driven by securities, but intraday, it collapsed. Silver Jieda’s performance is rare in this market, indicating difficulty in other sectors. If other sectors have opportunities, why would funds push financials? Today, financials showed unusual strength but also sharp declines. Tomorrow, a strong open is needed to confirm.

At 10:04, Muyuan Foods surged again—after half an hour of trading, funds made their choice. Nothing special. The year begins in spring; the market is the same. The pig sector surged at open, but real estate, liquor, securities—full of buffs—didn’t move much. Tried to trade intraday but didn’t act. Didn’t expect to survive in this market.

At 10:36, energy-saving wind power surged, indicating market sentiment is warming. Then, look at Dongfang Caifu’s decline from that point—almost no rebound. The purpose of today’s rise in Dongfang Caifu? It’s a typical “抱摔” (throwing down) pattern—likely signaling a rebound isn’t far.

At 10:55, Chint Power surged to the limit. But other energy storage stocks, especially in inverters, didn’t move much—so this isn’t very meaningful.

At 11:00, Gude Electric Materials hit the limit—related to new energy, just knowing it’s a recent stock is enough. Only active when the market is weak. Today, four stocks hit 20cm, except Zhongfu Shenying, which is a herd stock; others lack significance due to small market cap.

At 13:00, afternoon funds attacked chemical stocks again—another fake rally. Major weights mostly retreated, no good stories. Even Shunnai and others, after herd buying, exploded again, mimicking and expanding patterns.

By close, 4,541 stocks declined, 867 rose. There were five dips to the bottom. Total turnover was 22,246 billion, shrinking by 1,153 billion. The structure of volume decline—initially small, then sharp—indicates panic selling in the afternoon, which is favorable for a rebound tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s rebound depends on:

1. When it happens—opening high is most sincere, indicating a correction of today’s misjudgment.
2. What leads—if AI hardware still dominates, it’s limited; only after declines will it be worthwhile.
3. Will any stocks break out? No need to guess; just observe if the stocks you watch are breaking out.
4. Pattern: if it forms a two-wave sideways, like Falsun or Shunnai, and then expands, where are the signals to stop falling?

At 10:55, Zhengtai Power surged to the limit. But other energy storage stocks, especially inverters, didn’t move much—so this isn’t very meaningful.

At 11:00, Gude Electric Materials hit the limit—related to new energy, just knowing it’s a recent stock is enough. Only active when the market is weak. Today, four stocks hit 20cm, except Zhongfu Shenying, which is a herd stock; others lack significance due to small market cap.

At 13:00, afternoon funds attacked chemical stocks again—another fake rally. Major weights mostly retreated, no good stories. Even Shunnai and others, after herd buying, exploded again, mimicking and expanding patterns.

By close, 4,541 stocks declined, 867 rose. There were five dips to the bottom. Total turnover was 22,246 billion, shrinking by 1,153 billion. The structure of volume decline—initially small, then sharp—indicates panic selling in the afternoon, which is favorable for a rebound tomorrow.

So, the key points for tomorrow:

• When will the rebound happen? A high open is most convincing—correcting today’s misjudgment.
• What will lead? If AI hardware still dominates, it’s limited; declines will create opportunities.
• Will any stocks breakout? Just observe if the stocks you focus on are breaking out.
• Pattern: if it forms a two-wave sideways, like Falsun or Shunnai, and then expands, where are the signals to stop falling?

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