Baird: Falling interest rates drove a 3% year-over-year decrease in used car retail prices in February

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-17T18:30:38+00:00

Used car market data shows that in February, used car retail prices declined 3% year-over-year, while sales volume increased 6%. Loan rates dropped 60-70 basis points compared to last year. The Manheim used car wholesale price index rose 4% year-over-year. Average selling prices at CarMax and Carvana increased, with performance expected to exceed market expectations.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-17 18:30:38

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Investing.com – According to the used car CPI index, retail prices for used cars in February decreased by 3% year-over-year, while used car loan rates dropped by 60-70 basis points compared to the same period last year, Baird reports.

Initial data from vAuto shows that used car retail sales increased by 6% in February, but based on historical revision patterns, the final figures may be close to flat or show low single-digit growth.

Manheim’s Used Vehicle Value Index tracks wholesale prices adjusted for model, mileage, and seasonality, which rose 4% year-over-year in February.

According to Bankrate, the 48-month used car loan rate in February was flat or slightly lower than in January. The rate remains 60-70 basis points lower than the same period last year.

CarMax (NYSE: KMX) reported an average selling price of $26,383 for the quarter ending November 2025, up from $26,153 in the same quarter of 2024, an increase of $114. The typical monthly payment for November 2025 was $516, compared to $514 last year, rising from pre-pandemic levels of about $375.

CarMax plans to release its Q4 earnings report in April. Baird believes the actual performance for that quarter will be better than the market consensus of -5% comparable sales.

Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) reported an average selling price of $25,416 for the quarter ending December 2025. The company did not disclose the average interest rate paid by buyers.

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