International oil prices surge, pushing up inflation expectations; Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) attracted nearly 1.7 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days, with institutions optimistic about long-term gold trends

On March 13, Brent crude oil prices initially retreated to $99.5 in early trading but then strengthened again. Gold prices moved in the opposite direction, continuing to decline. By the close of the morning session, Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell 0.83%, Gold Stock ETF (159562) dropped 1.65%, and Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (516650) declined 1.32%.

Wind data shows that as of March 12, Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) has attracted over 1.66 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 20 trading days.

In terms of news, an economist from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated on the 12th that, due to tensions in the Middle East, London Brent crude futures could surge to $120 to $150 per barrel. Commodity strategist Vivek Dhal reported that if the military conflict in the Middle East does not end quickly, oil and refined product prices could reach unprecedented levels.

According to Cailian Press, IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Monday that Middle East conflicts could push up global inflation, with energy security becoming a top concern. Specifically, Georgieva warned that if oil prices continue to rise and maintain an upward trend throughout the year, a 10% increase in oil prices could lead to a 40 basis point rise in global inflation.

Additionally, according to CCTV Finance, although short-term gold prices are under pressure, some large financial institutions believe that the long-term demand for central bank allocations remains strong. The safe-haven buying driven by geopolitical uncertainties continues to support gold prices. Deutsche Bank expects gold to reach a historic high of $6,000 per ounce by the end of this year, while JPMorgan forecasts $6,300 per ounce.

CITIC Futures Research Institute analysis indicates that in the short term, gold may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, progress in the International Energy Agency’s oil releases, U.S. PCE data on March 13, and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on March 17-18. In the long term, we remain optimistic about gold’s trend, as the weakening of the US dollar’s credit remains the main theme; if the market shifts towards stagflation trading logic, it could provide a catalyst for a phased increase in gold prices.