A Detailed Explanation of "15th Five-Year Plan": How 109 Major Projects Will Support China's Future

China’s 14th Five-Year Plan Outline has been officially released.

It discusses the current and future five-year development prospects, as well as longer-term visions.

At the same time, the world is experiencing intense turbulence.

This stark contrast is even somewhat brutal: in today’s world, being able to set aside war and chaos to focus on “development” is a rare achievement.

As a major engine and stabilizer of the global economy, China is not only working to solve the puzzle of modernization with Chinese characteristics but also illuminating a clear path for global development amid the fog of geopolitical uncertainties.

Understanding this grand picture can start with 109 major projects and initiatives—recently, the National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie mentioned the “Three Batches,” which serve as a key to understanding the “14th Five-Year Plan.”

Each five-year plan’s layout is different, reflecting changes in development stages and strategic thinking.

“A Stronger Foundation” Makes the Base More Stable and Space Larger

The opening of the “14th Five-Year Plan” discusses the “development environment.” The plan states: “China’s development environment faces profound and complex changes.”

This is the logical starting point for understanding the first batch of projects—the strategic projects within the “Three Batches.”

What does strategic mean? Simply put, it refers to the fundamental infrastructure supporting national operation.

Among the 109 major projects, those carrying this mission include:

• Major hydropower and water, wind, and solar integration bases
• New energy bases like “Shage Desert”
• Coastal nuclear power
• Three Gorges waterway new channel
• “Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal” high-speed rail main corridors
  ……

Looking at these projects together, the pattern is clear: one category is energy, the other is transportation. These are the backbone supporting a country’s development.

From a new starting point, we need to explore new development space in these areas.

This is the deeper meaning of “strategic projects”—energy and transportation are not just foundational elements but also levers to unlock the future. Their development aims to solve the dilemmas of the times and extend development space.

Starting with energy, it directly addresses questions of security and development needs.

Take the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project as an example. It represents the major water, wind, and solar integration base, capable of providing about 300 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, directly replacing 90 million tons of standard coal.

Other projects are similar:

• National nuclear power capacity is expected to reach 110 million kW by 2030, making China the world leader.
• Offshore wind power capacity will also exceed 100 million kW by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan.”

From high mountains to water, from deserts to sunlight, from deep seas to wind.

These projects collectively will further reduce China’s external dependence on energy. Even in the face of severe external changes, their impact on China’s transmission will diminish.

But this is only the first step. After solving the “whether there is electricity” problem, the next question is: what can this electricity be used for?

This is the key to responding to the rapid acceleration of industrial revolution and external headwinds.

Tan notes that for the first time in the government work report this year, a term appeared: “computing power and electricity collaboration.”

Computing power determines the efficiency of AI large models. A significant part of the cost of computing power is electricity. According to estimates, electricity costs account for 60% to 70% of operational expenses for data centers.

Transforming electricity into computing power—that’s what is being done.

Provinces rich in energy like Gansu, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia are becoming hotspots for data center clusters. Low electricity prices can reduce computing costs, ultimately lowering inference costs for AI models.

Statistics show that the cost of outputting 1 million tokens with Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet is about $15, while top Chinese models with similar performance can reduce this to $2.6 or even lower.

Electricity projects not only produce power but can also be converted into computing capacity. This is what strategic projects are doing: extending development space.

Looking at transportation, if energy addresses external resilience, then transportation addresses internal vitality.

Currently, about 84% of the “Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal” high-speed rail main corridors are operational. By the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” most will be completed, forming 1-4 hour travel circles between neighboring large and medium cities, and 0.5-2 hour circles within urban clusters.

Roads open, logistics and human flow increase, and industries will follow.

Production costs include manufacturing, transportation, and energy costs. Building a transportation network is not just about reducing a single cost but about reallocating production factors.

After the Three Gorges waterway is completed and operational, it will significantly save shipping time and better leverage water transport’s low cost and green advantages.

This is another layer of strategic projects: activating development space through transportation.

• Energy extends the “base” of development outward, hedging against external uncertainties.
• Transportation energizes internal “space,” solving internal mobility issues.

Together, they are doing one thing: making China’s economic foundation more stable and expanding future maneuvering space.

“Development Levers” Become Pillars, Creating Opportunities

With a solid foundation of strategic projects, the next question is: where does the growth momentum come from? Where will new growth points emerge?

The second batch of the “Three Batches”—“Advancing a batch of leading future industries”—serves as the entry point.

They include:

• Large-scale AI computing clusters
• Satellite internet
• Controlled nuclear fusion
  ……

These cutting-edge fields are obviously “future-oriented,” but we should also understand their “leading” role.

During the two sessions, at the economic press conference, Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, mentioned: “Today’s future industries may become tomorrow’s emerging pillar industries.”

This year’s government work report mentions “new pillar industries,” building on the previous “strategic emerging industries,” marking a step forward:

In the past, the focus was on “cultivating” and “strengthening”—waiting for industries to grow. Now, emphasizing “pillars” means these industries have scale effects and industry-driving capabilities. The goal now is for them to shoulder major responsibilities and support a broad sector.

This shift is already happening.

Integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, low-altitude economy, new energy storage, smart robots—by 2025, their output value will approach 6 trillion yuan, and by 2030, it could double, surpassing 10 trillion yuan.

These industries are moving from “choosing tracks” to “scaling up.”

To promote this process, two steps are needed.

First, these industries must be sustainable, which depends on solving “neck” problems hidden deep within industrial systems.

Tan reports that during the drafting of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” they paid special attention to strengthening industrial foundations and tackling major technological equipment challenges.

To overcome these difficulties, they adopted a keyword—“extraordinary measures.”

Using extraordinary measures, they will push for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies across the entire chain—integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, biological manufacturing, and more.

The term “extraordinary” did not appear in the “14th Five-Year Plan” outline but was mentioned once in the “13th Five-Year Plan”—when taking extraordinary measures to intensify poverty alleviation.

We won that battle, and we are confident we can win this one too.

Once these industries are established, the next step is to elevate them from “being able to stand” to “standing tall”—becoming pillars that not only grow in scale but also create wind opportunities in uncharted global “no-man’s land.”

Some industries already show such characteristics—key components of controlled nuclear fusion are autonomous and controllable, with core indicators constantly breaking records.

Similar layouts are accelerating. According to the “High-Quality Standard System Construction Plan for Industrial Mother Machines” issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2026, China aims to establish a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines.

Industrial mother machines, also called machine tools, are the machines that make machines. Precision gears for new energy vehicles, blades for aircraft engines, reducers for humanoid robots—all rely on them.

From manufacturing, to technology, to standards—this forms a complete cycle of technological independence and strength:

From catching up in the “rear” to reaching the “no-man’s land” of the world, and then creating wind opportunities by oneself.

Quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, 6G… these fields will generate a scale of new industries equivalent to recreating a high-tech China in the next decade.

This system will also become a new way for China to interact with the world.

“Development Purpose” Invests in People, Making Development Benefit Humanity

Among the 109 major projects, there is another category—these are not directly invested in industrial production but are aimed at safeguarding and improving people’s livelihoods.

This corresponds to the third batch of the “Three Batches”—implementing a series of warm and rewarding livelihood projects.

This may be the most easily misunderstood category.

Tan notes that some media interpret it simply as “solving current consumption issues”—giving people more disposable income so they can spend more.

But is that all?

If it’s just to stimulate consumption, it’s a short-term economic tool. Looking at these projects within the “14th Five-Year Plan” framework reveals a much deeper purpose.

These projects include:

• Prosperity and development of socialist culture
• Building a high-quality education system
• Healthy China initiative
• Optimizing services for the elderly and children
• Improving social care services

They are not just about “pocketbooks” but about all aspects of social life around individuals. Behind this is a development philosophy: investing in people.

In the past, the idea was “to get rich, first build roads”—a typical “investment in material” logic. Now, policies increasingly emphasize the integration of material and human investment.

“Investing in people” was first written into the government work report in 2025, then incorporated into the “14th Five-Year Plan” recommendations, and now appears in the outline.

Step-by-step implementation reflects deep strategic considerations.

On one hand, it responds to the practical needs of social development at a certain stage.

The previous growth model relied on “investment in material,” but its marginal benefits are diminishing.

Building the same roads or factories yields less growth.

This is the background for proposing “investment in people”—caring for and cultivating people is the new source of growth.

On the other hand, a deeper strategic reason is to mitigate the shocks brought by technological revolutions.

Entering the AI era, new issues are emerging: the fruits of growth mainly flow to capital and technology owners, marginalizing workers.

The logic of “investing in people” includes:

• Education—enhancing human capital to better adapt to new employment demands in the AI era, and supporting the expansion of over 100,000 undergraduates in “Double First-Class” universities.
• Social security—building a safety net to make distribution fairer.
• Public services—redefining the purpose of growth, returning value to people.

Essentially, these measures aim to clarify the transmission mechanism between “growth” and “people” through institutional arrangements, building a defense line for the new development stage and preventing advanced productivity from disrupting social life.

This is a systematic upgrade of the country’s development goals and governance logic.

A detail that reflects this change is that the “14th Five-Year Plan” specifically proposes establishing mechanisms to investigate and respond to AI’s impact on employment as part of improving employment public services.

Behind this is an upgrade in livelihood security thinking and a concrete implementation of the “invest in people” philosophy in the technological age.

Previously, we focused on people’s “productive” capacity—how to turn people into labor and output. Now, the “14th Five-Year Plan” aims to better serve people’s development through capital, technology, and resources.

The standards for development are not only economic indicators but also people’s sense of gain, happiness, and confidence.

These 109 major projects ultimately answer one question: what is good governance?

Good governance is not just about growth figures. High-quality development, high-level safety, efficient governance, and a high-quality life—these are the core of China’s modernization. Throughout this vision, people are the constant thread.

This is the ultimate goal of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the warmest tone of China’s modernization.