Ceasefire = Rebound Catalyst ≠ Bull Market Begins

First, the conclusion: the ceasefire is a “bear-market rebound” catalyst, not a “reversal” signal

First, look at the terms of the US-Iran negotiations

US side: the core is “the strait permanently remains open + nuclear constraints,” and there’s no talk of troop withdrawal / sanctions / reparations Iran side: the “ten-point plan” includes hardline demands such as troop withdrawal / full sanctions easing / war reparations (about $200 billion)

Therefore, this is a tactical breathing space, not an end-of-war signal. The two sides’ demands are fundamentally worlds apart, and the probability of reaching a permanent peace within two weeks is extremely low

The US-Iran interim ceasefire only cools geopolitical risk in the short term. It lifts the crypto market, but in essence it’s a rebound in bear-market sentiment after risk-avoidance capital flows back—this is not a trend reversal, and the core logic has never changed.

This ceasefire is a 14-day temporary agreement. The two sides’ core demands differ massively. The April 10 negotiations could fall apart at any time, and geopolitical uncertainty will keep disturbing the market repeatedly. The crypto rally lacks sustained fundamental support. Judging from the order book and price action, BTC, ETH, and SOL have all seen shrinking-volume rebounds into key resistance zones. In the medium term, moving averages remain arranged bearishly, incremental capital has little momentum to enter, and the rebound’s driving force was never solid to begin with.

In terms of strategy, stick to “short rallies” as the main approach. Lightly position for short-term longs only to catch opportunities as support is retested—don’t chase highs. If the price breaks through a key resistance level, cut losses and exit immediately—never hold on. After that, if negotiations hit obstacles or US inflation data comes in above expectations, this rebound will end quickly, and the market is likely to return to a downward channel.

What ordinary people need to do is: keep cash ready, set stops properly, trade lightly and quickly—move in and out fast.