Economist: U.S. March CPI Month-over-Month Could Surge 1%, Federal Reserve May Find It Difficult to Cut Rates This Year

MeNews · 2026-04-09T05:06:18+00:00

Economists predict that the US March CPI will increase by 1%, marking the largest single-month rise since 2022, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%. The Iran war has led to rising gasoline prices, causing the inflation slowdown process to stall, and the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates.

MeNews

2026-04-09 05:06:18

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ME News message, on April 5 (UTC+8), economists said that the sudden rise in gasoline prices felt directly by U.S. consumers will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. It is expected that the U.S. March CPI will rise 1% month over month, which would be the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI could rise 0.3% month over month. Previously, the Iran war pushed U.S. gas station gasoline prices up by about $1 per gallon. One day before the CPI data is released, a Fed-favored inflation gauge will provide information on wartime price pressure. Economists expect that the core PCE price index may rise 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, indicating that even before the conflict erupted, the process of inflation easing to a more moderate level has stalled. Combined with signs that the U.S. labor market has stabilized, stubborn price pressures, and new inflation risks brought by the Middle East war, this helps explain why the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year. (Source: Jin10)

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