#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 A sudden change on the first day of the ceasefire: Trump "bounces back and forth" overnight, Israel "conducts consecutive bombings," Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz!

The ceasefire was barely dry when bombs started falling.
On the evening of April 7th, Eastern US time, Trump announced on social media that he would suspend airstrikes on Iran for two weeks. This decision was made less than 90 minutes before his self-imposed "final deadline." The global markets immediately rebounded—US stocks surged sharply, Brent crude oil dropped over 13% in a single day, falling below $95 per barrel. However, less than 24 hours later, the situation rapidly shifted. Israel launched its largest-scale airstrikes since the current conflict with Lebanon, and Iran announced the suspension of oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump issued contradictory statements on the core issues of the ceasefire terms, leaving the outside world uncertain about the true content of the agreement.

This ceasefire has been chaotic from the start.
Confusing signals from Trump: multiple versions overnight
The morning after the ceasefire agreement was reached, signals from the White House left the outside world puzzled. Trump continued his usual style of "governing via social media" and "TACO," posting a series of messages in the early hours about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran nuclear materials, tariffs, and sanctions. However, these messages contained a lot of ambiguous or incomplete claims.
The biggest disagreement centers on: what is the basis for negotiations? The night before, Trump clearly stated that Iran’s "10-point plan" was the "feasible basis" for negotiations, and claimed that "almost all contentious points have been agreed upon." But just a few hours later, his stance shifted. Trump emphasized that the "15-point plan" proposed by the US was now the basis for negotiations, insisting that "many elements of the 15-point plan have already been agreed upon"—despite Iran having previously rejected this plan outright. Internal White House statements were even more fragmented.
White House Press Secretary Karine Leavitt directly attacked Iran’s proposal when speaking to reporters: "The initial Iranian proposal was completely unserious and unacceptable, and has been entirely abandoned—literally thrown into the trash by Trump and the US negotiators." She even added, "The idea that President Trump would accept Iran’s wishlist as the basis for an agreement is utterly absurd." This creates a huge logical gap: the president says Iran’s plan is the foundation, but the press secretary says it’s in the trash. For financial markets, this uncertainty is deadly. As former Middle East envoy Dennis Ross during President Clinton’s era said, "These next two weeks are likely to be full of surprises. The key is to clarify what commitments both sides have actually made."
Beyond the confusion over the negotiation text, Trump also proposed some startling new ideas. He suggested cooperating with Tehran to "remove" its nuclear materials, even proposed establishing a joint venture to collect tolls from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He also threatened to impose a 50% tariff on countries supplying weapons to Iran. However, the US Supreme Court had previously limited the president’s authority to rapidly impose tariffs. These statements, lacking practical feasibility, further fueled doubts about the coherence of US policy.
Israel’s "consecutive bombings": exploiting the agreement’s blind spots
If the chaos in the White House is a hidden danger for the ceasefire, Israel’s actions have directly ignited the fuse. When Trump initially announced the ceasefire, he only specified that attacks on Iran should stop, leaving a critical blind spot:
Lebanon. Lebanon is another key front where Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah are fighting. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu quickly seized this loophole. He publicly stated that Israel supported the two-week ceasefire with Iran but insisted that "the ceasefire does not include Lebanon." Subsequently, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched highly destructive operations. According to Xinhua, on the afternoon of April 8, the IDF carried out over 100 targeted airstrikes in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon within just 10 minutes. This was the largest-scale attack by the IDF inside Lebanon since the start of the Israel-Iran conflict.
The aftermath of the airstrikes was devastating: at least 254 people killed and 1,165 injured within a day. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati later declared April 9 a day of national mourning.
Netanyahu delivered a tough speech that evening during prime time: "We still have objectives to achieve. We will accomplish these either through an agreement or through renewed fighting... Our finger remains on the trigger."
Israel’s logic is