The Strait of Hormuz is once again closed. On the surface, it affects global energy transportation; in reality, it is global capital sentiment that is impacted first. Disruptions to crude oil shipping mean oil prices may continue to rise. Once energy market conditions keep pushing higher, worries in the market about global inflation recurring will quickly heat up. This will directly affect the short-term performance of risk assets.

For Bitcoin and Ethereum, in the short term what bears the brunt first is the contraction of funds caused by a flight-to-safety sentiment. When local geopolitical risks escalate, market funds often prioritize flowing into gold and the US dollar. High-volatility assets are prone to rapid back-and-forth, especially when they are currently near key pressure areas. In such cases, there is likely to be repeated “shakeout” and “wash trading.” But if oil prices continue to climb afterward—further increasing market competition around expectations for easier policy—then Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive asset, may instead regain investors’ attention after the release of sentiment.

Ethereum is usually affected more directly, because it has higher elasticity, and its price swings are more pronounced during periods when risk sentiment is amplified. Overall, these kinds of international situations do not determine the direction of the trend on their own, but they do amplify changes in short-term tempo. The focus for the market next is not only when the Strait of Hormuz will recover, but also whether the situation among the US, Iran, and a three-party setup will continue to escalate—because this will determine whether subsequent capital stays on the sidelines while in risk aversion or returns to the crypto market.#美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 $BTC