Breaking! Israel launches a large-scale airstrike! The latest news from the Strait of Hormuz.

Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.

On April 7, local time, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying that on the 6th it launched a large-scale airstrike on multiple areas in Iran, targeting Iran’s key infrastructure. According to CCTV International News, Tehran, the capital of Iran, was hit by three rounds of attacks on April 7.

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the latest statement from Iran says that Iran is drawing up plans and related legislation to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. In a recent report, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that, regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, investors have two major misconceptions; the apparent calm in the U.S. stock market may be based on a systemic underestimation of risk.

In addition, the latest remarks by Iranian President Pezeshkian have also drawn attention. Pezeshkian said in a message posted on social media on April 7 that, to date, more than 14 million Iranians have registered as volunteers to give their lives to defend Iran, including himself. He said: “I used to be someone who was willing to give my life for Iran; this has been true in the past, and it is true now and will be true in the future.”

Latest Developments in the Strait of Hormuz

On April 7, according to Xinhua News Agency, citing a report from Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting TV on April 7, a spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Ibrahim Rezaei, said in a televised interview on that day that Iran is drawing up plans and related legislation to ensure security in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous state.

Rezaei also said that, at present, all Iranian oil exports are proceeding as usual; the country’s oil production capacity is even higher than before. Iran has taken the necessary measures to ensure the security of Kharg Island.

Kharg Island is located in the northwest of the Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers from Iran’s coastline. It is roughly 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide. It is Iran’s largest crude oil export base, from which 90% of Iran’s crude oil is exported.

Michael Cembalest, Chairman of JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management’s Markets and Investment Strategy, warned of two major risks in a recently released report:

First, America’s energy independence is not a “firewall” to withstand a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—skyrocketing global oil prices would directly penetrate the U.S. market.

Second, Iran has drawn the conclusion from the current situation that using the card of “seizing the global economy” with the Strait of Hormuz works far better than expected, and there is no fundamental pressure forcing a rapid concession.

Michael Cembalest believes that beneath the apparent calm of the U.S. stock market, systemic risk is being seriously underestimated.

Michael Cembalest listed multiple structural factors that make the situation difficult to resolve quickly. First, even if the strait reopens tomorrow, it will take time for the region’s oil production to recover to pre-conflict levels. Second, the stockpiles of interceptor missiles held by the United States, Israel, and Gulf countries may already be running tight. In addition, Iran’s notable progress in drone manufacturing has greatly enhanced its ability to carry out asymmetric warfare.

In the report, Michael Cembalest wrote: “Although the payloads carried by drones are smaller, even small payloads can cause enormous damage to aircraft, warships, and radar systems that are far more expensive to build—and the payload carried per unit cost of a drone is higher than in many missile systems.”

In addition, the U.S. Navy’s mine-clearing capabilities are also a cause for concern—right now, only four old mine countermeasure ships remain in the fleet, and all of them are planned to be decommissioned.

Israel Carries Out Large-Scale Airstrikes

On the afternoon of April 7, according to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement issued on April 7 local time that it carried out strikes on a petrochemical complex facility in Iran on the 6th—one of the few facilities in Iran that can still be used to produce the materials needed for making explosives and ballistic missiles.

The Israeli side said that on the 6th it launched large-scale airstrikes on multiple areas in Iran, targeting Iran’s key infrastructure. As part of the operation, the Israeli forces struck a petrochemical complex facility in Shiraz, Iran, which is used by Iran’s armed forces to produce nitric acid. The Israeli side said the strike strengthened the intensity of its attacks on Iran’s military capabilities. In addition, the Israeli forces also struck a large ballistic missile launch site in northwestern Iran and killed multiple armed personnel.

The Israel Defense Forces also said that, following “precision airstrikes,” more than 130 air-defense systems on Iran’s side have been destroyed.

Iran has made no response to this so far.

Also, according to Xinhua News Agency citing Iran’s Mehr News Agency on April 7, Hormozabad Airport in Lorestan Province, Iran was attacked by the United States and Israel on that day. Local officials said the attack did not result in any casualties.

At 13:20 on April 7, Tehran, the capital of Iran, was hit again, and thick smoke rose from the explosion site. As of now, Tehran has been hit at least three times that day. On that day, Iranian government spokesperson Muhajerani said that, to date, 218 medical facilities in Iran have been attacked, and 24 medical personnel have died.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military has also revealed major moves. According to CCTV News, as U.S. President Trump’s so-called “final notice” threat to Iran is set to expire soon, the Pentagon was reported on the 6th to have included Iran’s energy facilities with both military and civilian uses in its list of strike targets.

The report said that if Trump were to dispatch ground forces into Iran, it could cause this conflict—already unpopular with the American public—to continue even further. If Trump chooses to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, that would clearly violate international law and could lead to allegations of war crimes. To avoid this outcome, the United States intends to follow Israel’s approach and target Iran’s facilities with both military and civilian uses.

Two U.S. Department of Defense officials who requested anonymity said that, at the same time, Iran’s energy facilities that supply fuel and electricity to both civilians and the military could be designated as “lawful” strike targets.

Another anonymous U.S. official said that within the Pentagon there has been considerable debate over how to distinguish between military and civilian strike targets—for example, whether seawater desalination plants with both military and civilian uses can be designated as strike targets.

Layout: Wang Yunpeng

Proofreading: Yang Shuxin