Ceasefire eases supply concerns, Goldman Sachs lowers Q2 oil price forecast but warns that extreme risks still exist

ME News update: April 9 (UTC+8). After the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for oil prices in the second quarter of 2026: Brent crude was lowered from $99 to $90 per barrel, and WTI crude was lowered from $91 to $87 per barrel. The firm said the ceasefire drove the risk premium to fall, alongside the gradual recovery of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which are the main reasons for the downgrade. Affected by this, Brent crude fell by about 11% at one point this Monday. However, Goldman Sachs kept its oil price forecasts for the second half of the year unchanged and emphasized that uncertainty on the supply side remains high: If a disruption in Middle East supply continues and production losses worsen, in an extreme scenario Brent crude could rise to $115 per barrel. In addition, Goldman Sachs simultaneously lowered its forecast for Europe’s TTF natural gas price to €50 per MWh, but warned that if LNG transport is disrupted, gas prices could still rebound to above €75. Overall, while the ceasefire provides short-term relief to market stress, energy markets in the medium to long term remain dominated by geopolitics, and volatility risks remain significant. (Source: BlockBeats)