Brothers, this US-Iran drama is more exciting than a TV series. Just less than a day after the ceasefire was announced, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran. Want to pass through the oil tanker? Not a chance. One moment they’re shouting “historic victory,” and the next they’re slapped in the face. Who can keep up with this rhythm?

The market’s biggest fear isn’t the conflict itself, but this unpredictable up-and-down pace. You have no idea how oil prices will move next. Relying on intuition to trade? You might as well wait to be thrown out.

How to view the short term? It’s simple: as long as the Strait is blocked, supply will tighten directly, and oil prices will definitely rise. How much will they increase? How long will the rise last? It all depends on Iran’s mood and the progress of negotiations. If it’s just minor skirmishes, prices might spike briefly and then fall back. But if the conflict escalates and the channel is fully restricted, that will be a new trend in the market.

Looking at the market reaction now, after several rounds of turbulence, many funds have become cautious. Even if oil prices surge, it won’t be like the first time when everyone blindly bought in. Now, traders are more cautious, observing while entering the market.

To sum up: the current market isn’t just about rising or falling, but a “flip at any moment” event-driven market. The direction isn’t that important; what matters is—don’t get caught on the wrong side of the rhythm, and don’t let emotions lead you astray. #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故 #原油小幅上涨 #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 #创作者冲榜