Investment Risk Warning Needle: 20CM Two-Continuous Limit Popular Stock Highlights Risks; Indirectly Holds 1.64% Equity in Zhang Xue’s Motorcycle

Ask AI · Why has geopolitical de-escalation triggered oil price volatility?

Intro: Caixin (Cailian She) April 1 investment risk-alert pin—recent potential risk events in both the A-share and overseas markets are as follows. For domestic economic information, including: 1) Wuhan traffic police have reported “multiple ‘Luobo Express’ vehicles suddenly stopping while driving,” with an initial finding of a system malfunction; 2) Wafer prices have recently been steady but leaning weaker, with expectations that wafer production schedules next month will be reduced. For companies, key items to watch include: 1) Changchao Technology’s announcement of two consecutive 20CM daily limit-up boards—an investee fund holds 5.5046% equity in Zhang Xue’s car, with only a small impact on the company; 2) Zhongli Group’s 2024 Q1, H1, and Q3 reports disclosed inaccurate operating revenue figures and have been issued a warning letter. For overseas markets, key items to watch include: 1) Signals released by Iran and the United States that they are willing to push for resolving the conflict; international oil prices fell again on Tuesday; 2) Warren Buffett said that stock market valuations still lack attractiveness.

Economic Information

1. Late on March 31, multiple “Luobo Express” vehicles in Wuhan suddenly went “out of service” while in operation. Wuhan traffic police stated that the preliminary judgment is a system failure; there were no injuries or casualties, and the cause of the incident is under further investigation.

2. Shanghai crude oil continuous front-month contract fell by more than 11% at one point, with a low of 662.10 yuan per barrel.

3. The 18X wafer price is 0.98-1.00 yuan per wafer, the 210RN wafer price is 1.05-1.13 yuan per wafer, and the 210N wafer price is 1.25-1.33 yuan per wafer. Currently, wafer prices are temporarily stable, and there is still downside room in the near term. March wafer output increased 16.35%, higher than the expectation at the start of the month. In recent days, integrated companies have shown signs of reducing production; it is expected that next month’s wafer production schedules will be lowered. Meanwhile, market contract manufacturing orders have increased, with a more concentrated trend. Wafer companies’ inventories have begun to decline, and once battery companies have locked in March production plans, demand has been stronger than supply, causing the wafer segment to shift toward inventory reduction. (Shanghai Metals Market)

4. A report released on March 31 by the CFM flash memory market said that due to the excessive price increase in the earlier period, channel customers have growing resistance to high-priced storage products, making actual deal-making difficult. On the spot trading side, traders want to pull back funds and realize profits; at the trading end, more low-end DDR4 memory sticks are being sold off, further pressuring and weighing down the channel market. This week, channel DDR4 memory sticks led declines, especially for 8GB/16GB DDR4 memory sticks, whose price drop reached as much as 25%; the declines for other capacities are roughly in the 10% range. Channel SSDs also saw slight declines. Compared with this year’s first quarter, contract prices for original-equipment-server and PC NAND, and DRAM have increased in a doubling pattern. It is expected that in the second quarter, contract prices for mobile will make a significant catch-up; server and PC DRAM contract prices will rise by more than 30%. The average selling prices of eSSD and cSSD are expected to rise by more than 30% and 50%, respectively.

Company Early Warnings

1. Changchao Technology (two consecutive 20CM daily limit-up boards): the invested fund holds 5.5046% equity in Zhang Xue’s locomotive; the impact on the company is relatively small.

2. Zhongli Group: its 2024 Q1, H1, and Q3 reports’ disclosed operating revenue figures are inaccurate, and the company has been issued a warning letter.

3. Far Sheng: the company’s business does not involve fiber optics or specialty fiber optics, so there is no situation involving a restructuring or a backdoor listing.

4. Hanghua Co., Ltd.: shareholders plan to reduce their holdings of no more than 3.00% of the shares in total.

5. Jinmu Technology: shareholders holding more than 5% plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the shares.

6. Nanjing University of Environmental Sciences: multiple shareholders plan to reduce their holdings in total by no more than 2.74% of the shares.

7. Sinus Electrical: shareholders plan to reduce their holdings in total by no more than 2.55% of the company’s shares.

8. Co-found Creative Lawn: shareholders plan to reduce their holdings in total by no more than 1.0% of the shares.

9. Western Materials: the controlling shareholder, Xi Bei Nonferrous Metals Research Institute, plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 1% of the company’s shares.

10. Marubi Bio: 2025 net profit will fall by 27.63% year over year.

11. Hongye Futures: 2025 net profit is 3.9927 million yuan, down 86.61% year over year.

12. Longyuan Electric Power: 2025 net profit is 4.53B yuan, down 28.78% year over year.

13. Huangshi Group: it downgrades its performance forecast; it expects 2025 net profit to be a loss of 420 million yuan-490 million yuan.

14. Linggang Co., Ltd.: 2025 net profit is a loss of 1.56B yuan.

15. Three Gorges Energy: 2025 net profit is 3.67B yuan, down 39.94% year over year.

16. Zhenjiang Co., Ltd.: 2025 net profit fell by 37.48% year over year.

17. Wanbangde: there is uncertainty in the progress and results of its innovative drug clinical trials and also in the future product market competitive landscape.

18. Sutaishen: multiple R&D pipeline projects are innovative biologics and face various risks, such as clinical trial progress potentially being worse than expected.

19. Galaxy Electronics: a wholly-owned subsidiary, Tongzhi Electromechanical, is found guilty of unit bribery and has been sentenced to a fine of 3 million yuan.

20. Sword of the Kings Co., Ltd.: revenue related to the company’s commercial spaceflight business accounts for less than 1% of the company’s 2025 operating revenue.

21. Hangjin Technology: Aoxing Digital Intelligence is no longer included in the scope of consolidated financial statements.

22. ST Cuihua: the company’s subsidiary has obtained新增 loans with overdue principal of 118 million yuan.

Overseas Early Warnings

1. On the evening of March 31, U.S. President Trump said from the White House that the U.S. will end its war with Iran within “two to three weeks,” and that an agreement could be reached with Iran before then. President Trump said the war with Iran would not last “too long.” He also said that other countries can re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s President Pezeshkian said Iran is willing to end the war, but on the condition that its demands are met—especially receiving guarantees that it will not be subjected to aggression again.

Because Iran and the United States have released signals indicating willingness to push for resolving the conflict, international oil prices fell again on Tuesday. WTI for May fell 1.5%, with the settlement price at $101.38 per barrel. The Brent May contract, expiring on Tuesday, rose 4.9%, with the settlement price at $118.35 per barrel. The more actively traded Brent June contract fell, with the settlement price at $103.97 per barrel.

2. Warren Buffett said that stock market valuations still lack attractiveness; if the market experiences a significant drop, Berkshire Hathaway will use cash. Apple remains Berkshire Hathaway’s largest single investment project, and selling Apple stock is too early.

3. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps today (March 31) issued a warning to the U.S. government and related companies, saying that, given the “information and communications technology and artificial intelligence companies relying on the United States” involved in the U.S.-Israel attack, effective immediately, the major companies participating in terrorist actions by the U.S. and Israel in this region will become legitimate targets for attacks by the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Revolutionary Guard Corps listed 18 companies in its announcement, most of which are U.S. high-tech companies, including: Cisco, Hewlett Packard (HP), Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, IBM, Dell, Palantir Technologies, Nvidia, JPMorgan Chase, Tesla, General Electric, and Boeing.

The announcement said that starting at 8:00 p.m. Tehran time on April 1, “whenever Iran suffers a terrorist attack, the facilities of the above companies will be targeted.”

4. Citigroup lowered its target price for Micron Technology from $510 to $425.

5. As fighting in the Middle East drives U.S. gasoline prices to surge, the living costs for middle- and low-income families in the U.S. increase, and the risk of an economic recession rises accordingly. The “Walmart Recession Signal (WRS)” index tracked by senior strategist Jim Paulson is nearing its all-time high, suggesting an economic slowdown or recession. The last time this index rose to this level was during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

6. Memory chip maker Kioxia again issued an updated shutdown notice to customers on the 31st, announcing that some traditional FloatingGate 2D NAND and third-generation BiCSFLASH products will gradually exit the market. Previously, Kioxia had already announced the shutdown of small-capacity TSOP package products. According to the notice, the last customer forecast order deadline for these products is September 30, 2026, while the final shipment cutoff time is December 31, 2028.

7. Last week, Iran attacked Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, damaging its helium production line, and rebuilding may take years. As QatarEnergy announced force majeure to customers, helium prices have surged significantly. According to an industry source that supplies helium to Samsung, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix currently have about 4 to 6 months of helium inventory. A South Korean government official said that, as the location of some of the world’s largest chip manufacturers (including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix), South Korea currently has enough helium inventory to get through the first half of the year.

(Caixin (Cailian She), Zhai Zhaohao)