Top 10 Brokerage Weekly Strategy | Market awaits the bottom-fishing opportunity! Volatility does not diminish resilience; focus on medium- and long-term positioning

Topic: The market is waiting to buy the dip—focus on three allocation lines: energy, growth, and policy

CITIC Securities: Keep focusing allocations on China’s manufacturing advantages

TACO’s possibility still exists, but market participants’ patience for funds has already been exhausted. We expect the war to be nearing its end by later this month; however, the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz being “weaponized,” as well as intermittent disruptions across the supply chain, is increasing. At present, among the five fundamental clues (dividend, going overseas, AI, PPI, and domestic consumption), only PPI, domestically produced AI, and consumption have not been priced in adequately. After the war ends, the most important fundamental factor is the transmission chain of oil → PPI → corporate earnings. Domestically produced AI is a relatively independent industrial change, while the trading of domestic consumption is highly likely to lag behind PPI trading. Of course, the trade of “PPI → corporate earnings” will only start once oil prices top out after the war ends. As the market cools down, allocations should gradually narrow the focus, continuing to concentrate on China’s manufacturing advantages.

Guangfa Securities: Expect the market to continue consolidating and searching for a floor for some time

In the short term, compared with the bottom formation of a “V-shaped reversal” during last April’s “reciprocal tariffs” period, there are still differences. Uncertainty remains in this war situation. During the earlier market selloff, trading volume was not notably enlarged, and regulatory funds have not yet sent signals of large-scale stabilization. We expect the market still needs some time of choppy consolidation to fully digest sentiment and rotate positions.

For this year’s A-shares path to “April’s decision,” a prerequisite is that globally there is no move toward a full-blown risk-off, meaning market risk appetite must not be too poor. There is one relatively key judgment: will high oil prices trigger a U.S. recession, and will the global economy further record profit downgrades in the future? We believe, based on current circumstances, there is insufficient basis for this concern. Historically, war—high oil prices—high inflation—rate hikes do not always lead to a U.S. economic recession each time. If the U.S. does not experience a clear recession within the year, then after global assets have recently adjusted their liquidity expectations for the year, the situation is unlikely to turn into a comprehensive collapse. In that case, A-shares’ “April’s decision” still has structural opportunities.

China Merchants Securities: The conflict is not over, yet there’s a chance to survive the worst

Looking ahead to April, external risks facing A-shares have not been materially alleviated. There is a risk that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran may escalate beyond expectations. Against this backdrop, further upward pressure on oil prices will intensify concerns about global stagflation. If in mid-to-late April the U.S. military launches a ground offensive—whether due to combat casualties exceeding expectations, or because a surge in oil prices triggers a deep correction in global stock markets—the Trump administration may be forced to shift toward a de-escalation strategy, and the market may play out a typical “dilemma reversal” style行情.

On the domestic front, after the conclusion of the Two Sessions in March and the release of the “15th Five-Year Plan” outline, subsequent key investment projects will accelerate their implementation, becoming the core driving force behind a rebound in domestic investment growth. If external shocks cause a significant rise in economic uncertainty, there is an expectation that the Central Political Bureau meeting at end of April may further intensify stabilization and growth policies. Taken together, late April will become a key time window for marginal improvement in the domestic and international environment. After external shocks subside, market focus in mid-to-late April will shift to the areas of high growth in first-quarter earnings. Based on current data, resource sectors such as non-ferrous metals and oil & petrochemicals, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to be among the industries with the most eye-catching earnings growth rates.

Industrial Securities: We should pay even more attention to the opportunity for the establishment of a “market floor” and a bottom allocation plan brought by the possible escalation of the situation

The market does not need to doubt that this conflict will evolve into a long-term, expanded comprehensive war because of recent statements by Trump and the sharp surge in oil prices. “Possible escalation in the short term, followed by a downgrade in the medium term” remains the baseline scenario. For April, what we should focus on more from the big picture is the opportunity for the establishment of a “market floor” and bottom allocation that could be brought by escalation of the situation. Also, after both sides enter into substantive negotiations, there will be a chance for the market to gradually return to normal and for a repair rally to start with a “China-centered” approach.

Therefore, we should look for high-quality assets in this round of conflict that have been “wrongly sold” due to emotional inertia, and gradually shift the positioning structure toward directions with certainty in business conditions. This is not only the core allocation logic for the April earnings disclosure period, but also—after the pricing environment changes this year—the logic shift that the market will need to repeatedly strengthen its understanding and pay more attention to.

Combining the涨跌幅 since March, we screen for top-performing industries that are more impacted by external shocks in this round, mainly including: AI (domestic semiconductor compute capacity, PCBs, and mid-to-lower segments such as gaming and consumer electronics), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military industry), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, glass & fiberglass), service consumption & new consumption (retail, accessories, pet economy), and non-bank financials, etc.

Guojin Securities: Solving the energy contradiction is the real resilience asset

The current market structure is not a steady state. If the fighting escalates, the so-called resilience assets today will also face additional declines; if de-escalation occurs, it may not be the optimal solution. In fact, when the source of the shock is mainly energy, then solving the energy contradiction is the real resilience asset. An increase in energy’s share in global GDP is highly likely.

Based on the information at hand, considering the combined expected values under the two scenarios, and adding expectations for a more optimistic market, we make the following recommendations: 1) As the global economy enters an energy replenishment cycle, new and old energy sources are likely to resonate together (oil, oil shipping, coal, lithium batteries, wind/solar, and energy storage); 2) After the “dollar illusion” gradually recedes, the return of financial attributes in commodities, combined with demand recovery, points to copper, aluminum, and gold; 3) Reassessment of China’s manufacturing: machinery and equipment, and chemicals. When manufacturing in China becomes the global ballast, sustained export strength beyond expectations and capital inflows will also bring new momentum to domestic demand that has been dormant—looking for structural opportunities after factors that suppress performance are reversed, such as tourism and scenic spots, seasoning fermentation products, beer and other alcoholic beverages, pharmaceutical commerce, medical aesthetics, etc.

CITIC Jianzhong: The market is waiting for the right time to buy the dip

The situation in Iran continues to escalate and is complex and changeable. The market has been oscillating repeatedly around negotiation signals. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran military actions have shifted from airstrikes to preparations for ground operations. The next 2–3 weeks remain a high-risk period in which the situation could deteriorate sharply. The market is waiting to buy the dip, and capital has a strong tendency to take a wait-and-see stance in the short term. On the other hand, internal fundamental factors are worth revisiting. A series of data jointly supports a positive economic trend. As March economic data is about to be released and the earnings season approaches, market attention will gradually shift to substantive verification of the quality of economic recovery and improved corporate earnings.

Patiently allocate along three clues: the main line of energy security and inflation, certain-growth assets, policy beneficiaries and peak-season momentum directions. Industry focuses include: oil and gas production, coal, coal-to-chemical industries, power equipment, utilities, chemicals, the AI industry chain, innovative drugs, infrastructure construction industry chain, and service consumption, etc.

Everbright Securities: Volatility won’t change resilience—wait for catalyst signals

Although the domestic market is inevitably affected by oil-price fluctuations and the downturn in short-term risk appetite, on the one hand, the domestic market’s energy self-sufficiency rate is relatively high, giving it some resistance against sustained upward external energy prices. On the other hand, judging from the past few rounds of overseas volatility, domestic exports typically benefit when external uncertainty rises, which may be due to the stability of China’s domestic supply chain. Therefore, from a medium-term perspective, we believe Chinese assets have endogenous stability and are expected to attract continuous fund inflows.

Looking ahead to April, the market’s potential turning point may come from the following three directions: first, listed company earnings will exceed expectations. Improvements beyond expectations in fundamentals could support the market’s upside. Second, medium-to-long-term capital entering the market. Third, external risk factors ease, but predictability is relatively poor. Structurally, we recommend focusing on earlier oversold directions, directions that benefit from rising commodity prices, and industries whose earnings may exceed expectations.

Bank of China Securities: The short-term positions still require patience—save capacity for medium-to-long-term allocation

We still remain bullish on the medium-to-long-term value of A-shares. In a横向 comparison with other global markets, A-shares’ comparative advantages in fundamentals and capital flows will gradually become more apparent. Domestic fiscal policy will lead and drive efforts to push for quarter-on-quarter recovery in the production and demand cycle; medium-to-long-term capital plans from public funds, insurance, and the like—including schemes similar to “a quasi-stabilization fund”—will provide downside support to the market. We still need to stay alert to the valuation compression caused by a faster rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Over the long term, a weakening U.S. dollar credit system will help reshape A-shares valuations. This Middle East geopolitical conflict in this round may become the dividing point between the uptrend of the asset price center during the Kondratiev winter and intensified volatility.

The trend of long-term dollar weakness will provide favorable conditions for A-shares valuation reshaping from the capital side. In the short term, we most recommend focusing on innovative drugs, which have both offensive and defensive attributes and can serve as quality allocation targets.

China Galaxy Securities: The key to the “spear” and the “shield” still lies in crude oil

As long as uncertainty around the conflict remains high and the trajectory is still unclear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment, and A-shares may show a pattern of choppy rotation. Changes in the crude oil price trend will remain a key variable affecting the market structure in the near term. If, under expectations that the conflict will ease, oil prices become volatile and fall again, and easing expectations rise back, that would be favorable for the repair of the growth stock rally. From the internal environment, the core logic has not changed: policy support, capital entering the market, and the re-rating of Chinese assets. External conflict has not shaken the long-term “slow bull” foundation of A-shares. At the same time, in April the concentrated disclosure period for listed company earnings begins, and the market’s clues will gradually shift toward fundamental verification. Industries with high earnings certainty and持续改善 in business conditions will become the core direction where funds focus.

Allocation opportunities: Focus on: 1) The trajectory of the conflict between Iran and the U.S. drives strength in energy and in substitute demand; focus on coal, coal chemical, new energy, shipping and ports, oil & gas, etc.; and focus on valuation repair opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector. 2) Defensive assets may be relatively stronger in stages; focus on financials (banks), utilities, and transportation, etc. 3) Tech innovation, self-reliance and controllability, and industry trends with certainty of logic; focus on power equipment, energy storage, storage, semiconductors, computing power, and communication equipment, etc. For the consumption sector, focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, food and beverage, household appliances, and other directions. In the medium-to-long term, we still look favorably on a dual main line: industry-driven tech sector rallies and the price-rise clues in cyclical sectors.

Caitong Securities: Watch for the potential bottoming window period at the end of April

We expect that by the end of the month, the situation may become clearer (regardless of who is stronger). Around the Central Political Bureau meeting in April, the market may trade in support policies and expectations for risk prevention policies, as well as possible early trading of potential positive factors from Trump’s planned visit to China. Combined with the view that the normal April and March (actually “3–4月”) adjustment行情 may occur, the potential bottoming window may be at the end of the month. Also, we highlight the early-May meeting of the Federal Reserve, which may be another window where negative factors may be fully priced in (i.e., concerns about clear inflation and rate hikes).

Against the backdrop of liquidity disturbances and pressured risk appetite, allocations should adopt a “HALOPLUS” strategy: defensive HALO cash flow + offensive growth with low crowding. On the defense side, HALO selects free-cash-flow assets with low correlation to TMT, featuring high cash flows, asset-heavy characteristics, and high entry barriers, to deal with the conflict calmly. This includes chemicals (agrochemicals, APIs), traditional Chinese medicine, shipping, power grids, etc. On the offense side, “PLUS” focuses on growth directions where trading heat is still low and which have lower sensitivity to interest rates. Focus on new energy with low mid-term positioning crowding (including space solar photovoltaics), the military industry (including commercial spaceflight), engineering machinery, and other China-advantage manufacturing.

Source: Securities Times

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Responsible editor: Wang Ke