Natural Rubber Network: Rubber rebound is obvious, with the 17,000 yuan threshold just around the corner

The main contract is seeing a strong upward move. As of the time of this release, natural rubber futures have rebounded to 17,000 yuan per ton. After continuous downside oscillation since the start of the year, by the end of March, a rebound from the range trading finally appeared. Pressure on the domestic supply side has begun to increase. Starting in the late March period, the Yunnan producing areas have started tapping gradually, and the currently tapped area is around 60%–70%. In the Hainan producing area, temperatures are currently a bit high; some regions have had sporadic tapping. It is expected that after the Qingming Festival, output will increase significantly. However, at present, the raw-material side in overseas producing areas still has some support. After all, Thailand and Malaysia have not yet seen large-scale tapping and are still in a low-production period, so upstream pressure has been slightly eased in the short term.

Rubber tire manufacturers’ operating rates are holding steady. As of March 29, 2026, China’s social inventory of natural rubber stands at 1.35 million tons, down by 10k tons month-on-month, a decrease of 0.8%. China’s total social inventory of dark-colored rubber is 918k tons, down by 0.3%. China’s total social inventory of light-colored rubber is 431k tons, down by 1.7% month-on-month. As of April 2, 2026, Shandong tire enterprises’ operating load for full-steel tires is 69.34%, up slightly by 0.08% from the previous week and up by 2.84% year-on-year.

With inventory pressure easing, downstream operating rates continue to recover. Judging from current fundamentals, rubber has room for upside gains. However, due to the lack of catalysts in the news and market sentiment, it is expected that prices will keep trading in a range around 17,000 today. (Natural Rubber Network)