YangDongxu'sCommentary

#BTC Yesterday’s price action and expectations are almost the same. The daily chart printed three consecutive bullish candles as well. This was also the “douding” I discussed yesterday: it will continue probing higher and try to break through 795. Even though it stopped at 791, it’s normal that Saturday couldn’t break through, because Saturday’s price action is usually much smaller. Sunday is different, though—Sunday night’s movement is relatively bigger. So after these three consecutive bullish days, will it reverse or continue to break upward?
Once it returns above 780 and forms a bullish s

#BTC Bitcoin has returned above 780, with the trend shifting from weak to strong. Before the rate announcement, the high point was pushed up to 782, and a break below that directly reached 790. And 790 is a slightly strong resistance level, unlikely to be broken easily, and when approaching it, a pullback was given, followed by oscillation and consolidation. Although it did not break 790 last night, based on the current closing pattern, the daily chart will still close at a high level, so the bulls will continue to test the resistance above. If it pushes above 790, then the 80k integer level

#BTC Yesterday’s price action was relatively slow, and it has essentially been a chronic range-bound consolidation. Yesterday morning first saw a spike and then a pullback, and by midday it gradually moved upward from the lows with a slow, range-bound climb; it stayed sideways around 760 until the evening, and then continued to stay sideways again until around midnight. After the Federal Reserve meeting, it was already said that the market action over the past few days hasn’t been very significant—of course partly due to the holiday effect, because trading is generally quiet during holidays.

#BTC Although it has been said that recent price action would be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rates and the volatility would not be too large, there’s still been little movement from the afternoon until now. The second box range is still being waited on. At the moment, it’s a tight range of 200 points, but the impact is not big. I’m still watching for a pullback this evening; however, I don’t look too much into this kind of structure anymore—just keep an eye on the area around 753 to 749. #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧

#BTC Fake coins can indeed make people rich overnight, but they can also bring someone down to zero in just a few minutes. With extreme ups and downs and too many unstable factors, they are not suitable for long-term use or for competing against large capital. Large funds have difficulty building or exiting positions without violently affecting the price, while VCs and project teams often hold low-cost positions, which may be dumped at any time. So behind so-called overnight riches are often countless casualties, and 99% of it is fuel.
Overall, altcoins are “short-term speculative tools

#BTC These past few days, DOGE (Dogecoin) has been quite popular, and many people are starting to get interested again. Previously, it was advised not to touch scam coins, but this time is different; the scam coins mentioned before are all of the same type—"more than 70% controlled by a single address," with no substantial technology or background, representing serious market manipulation. So let's first look at what value Dogecoin has:
1: Regulatory approval, SEC clarified on March 20 that Dogecoin is classified as a "digital commodity," clearing the biggest regulatory obstacle for institu

#BTC The intraday price is still either wildly trending or ranging and consolidating; the entry level given by the first wave of the morning was just right. There is 1,200 points of room to the downside, while in the afternoon it once again returned to the high zone. At present, the second leg at 761 has already surged, and a defense at 766 (you can allow an additional 100 points) is recommended to guard against a fake break; the target is near 743 to 740. #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧

#BTC The short-term outlook for market conditions is not expected to see any major moves. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining a cautious stance toward rate cuts. This high-interest-rate environment has suppressed market liquidity, and selling pressure has still been heavy at higher levels. The strong push for a "Bitcoin strategic reserve" means that, at the fastest, it will still take several weeks before it can be implemented. This long-term positive outlook provides emotional support for the currently sluggish market. So in the short term, the market is

#BTC What did Powell say in his last early morning press conference?
Simply put, Powell's speech sent a "hawkish" signal. Delayed expectations for rate cuts and concerns about high inflation. For Bitcoin, this represents short-term suppression, with medium-term volatility leaning weaker, making a strong upward move difficult. Although market focus has shifted to "Waller," Waller only took office on May 15, so before his appointment, it’s unlikely to see a strong, unilateral upward trend. A gradual decline within a range and weakening through consolidation is more likely. #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧

#BTC Yesterday midday, I sensed something was off. Usually, before major fundamentals arrive, the trend tends to stay within a narrow range because the market is waiting and trading is light, with both sides absorbing orders. Then, when the results are announced in the early morning, a decisive move occurs, often with a sharp rise followed by a pullback, and further decline overnight. However, overall, the range isn't very large. For the market, it's a double kill of both sides, but it won't be too extreme. So, with the fundamentals behind us, how will the subsequent trend structure develop?

#BTC There are 20 minutes left before the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's speech. As previously mentioned, if the announced value is greater than the previous one, then it is bullish; if less than the previous, then it is bearish. If it remains at 3.75%, then pay special attention to Powell's speech at 2:30. #加密市场小幅下跌

Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell’s speech, the market just surged then pulled back. Isn't this a sign of a double kill in the market? Early morning might see an even larger range, with Xi's moves even more aggressive. #加密市场小幅下跌

#BTC Early morning fundamental double kill???
Generally, before major fundamentals arrive, the price will first move within a tight range of fluctuation. This is to build strength for the fundamentals that come next. During the daytime white session, it is a slow grind upward: institutions keep buying continuously at low levels. So the contradiction comes—before the results of the fundamentals are released, will the bulls advance early to liquidate the bears, and then in the evening trigger a waterfall to liquidate the bulls? Or will they first push just below the bears’ psychological defense

#BTC I just mentioned that "Vosh" is stepping onto the stage, with short-term pressure and long-term benefits. So the impact of the Federal Reserve rate decision and Powell's speech at 2 a.m. on Bitcoin...
The rate expectation is unchanged, still 3.75%. It has little impact on Bitcoin.
But if the announced value exceeds expectations, it’s bearish for Bitcoin; if it’s below expectations, it’s bullish for Bitcoin.
What needs to be "closely watched" is whether Powell’s speech is hawkish or dovish. Hawkish: emphasizing stubborn inflation and delaying rate cuts, leading to downward pre

#BTC Currently, Bitcoin is moving sideways around 77, waiting for the evening fundamentals. First, we’ll discuss the evening; then we’ll talk about the early-morning fundamentals. At 10 PM, “Wells” will be nominated as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. So what impact will this have on Bitcoin?
The “Wells” nomination can basically be considered to have passed—of the votes, only one was against, and that vote has turned into support. For this market, it’s a mixed picture—good and bad are intertwined. But in the long run, the “pros outweigh the cons.”
1: Reduce reliance on quantitative easing. T

#BTC The recent truth behind the fleeing of scam funds:

Wash is about to take the stage, and he understands technology, so he's more aggressive. Wash tends to require stablecoin issuers to hold 100% reserves, which is compliant and beneficial for major players like USDC and USDT, but it’s a disaster for small projects and scams. Therefore, recent scam funds have been flowing into Bitcoin. Will Bitcoin leverage this to surge? The subsequent impact after Wash takes the stage on Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations…#加密市场小幅下跌

#BTC When there are fundamentals, focus on the fundamentals; when there are no fundamentals, look at the trend "structure." Although Monday and Tuesday both experienced declines, technically, it is a three-wave structure, especially after the second wave, which clearly indicates a third wave. The third wave is expected to be between 758 and 754. The retracement is around 900 points, approximately near 766. Looking back at the trend, it aligns with expectations. This is a typical wave pattern structure and also a trend cycle.
So don't just rely on intuition to trade; instead, observe the curre

#BTC There are 14 hours left until the Federal Reserve announces the interest rate, and then the decisive battle will begin, with impacts not just temporary but short-term. It can break above 8 and surge to 8.5. It can break below 7.3 and go down to below 6.8. Currently, it is exactly at the center, which is also the starting point of the decisive game. For those who are at high positions or low positions, it is both a few times and an abyss. The more prepared you are, the less chaotic the scene will be. Those who don't know how to plan should pay attention. #加密市场小幅下跌

#BTC Yesterday’s price action continued the three-wave structure. The lowest zone below is exactly the extension area of the three-wave structure, between 758 and 754. And the rebound was also around 900 points. So yesterday, when it was at 766, I emphasized that it still can’t be too optimistic, and that if the 761 small support can’t hold, we should first watch for the pullback to continue. Only after it reaches the lower level can it rebound. It has rebounded a bit now, but the strength is still a little lacking. So today, will it continue to weaken, or will it be strong again and attempt

#BTC It’s late at night again, and we’re in the slow-shock phase. Some people have already taken profit and decided to rest, while others are still watching the chart, fixated on getting out of being trapped. If you’re caught in a trade, don’t panic—an upside reversal against the wind will be right around early tomorrow morning. The intraday trend is already relatively clear. If, within a three-wave structure, two waves have appeared, you need to stay alert. That’s why I’ve kept emphasizing this afternoon: don’t “dō” yet—the three-wave sequence hasn’t finished. If you understand the wave-pa