Defioasis

Polymarket Builders quantity has exceeded 170
Beyond some native projects, many interesting cross-border integrations have been discovered
- Solana aggregator Jupiter integrated into Builder since early February, with daily trading volume exceeding $200,000
- Agent service providers like Bankr, SendAI, etc. have enabled users to call AI Agents to trade on Polymarket
- Interestingly, exchanges are also integrating. Deepcoin, a smaller exchange, should be the first CEX to currently integrate Polymarket; on the Perp DEX side, edgeX also completed integration in March, but the frontend has regiona

How difficult is it to make $1 million on Polymarket?
Out of over 2.3 million trading addresses, currently 95 Polymarket addresses have achieved a PnL of over $1 million, with a success rate of 0.04%.
Among the geniuses, 3 addresses have achieved a PnL of over $10 million, of which 2 have been inactive for more than a year; the remaining user, kch123, is still actively trading on sports events today.
Is this the ceiling for ordinary people? To reach the Top 1000, you need to be profitable on Polymarket by at least $115,000.
Data is obtained from the Polymarket Leaderboard API, listing

Crude Oil Decline
On Polymarket, the whale Maratk87 who bet on No for the Oil price at the end of March has already realized a profit of nearly $200,000
- Only traded 6 markets, specifically bets on Oil prices at the end of March of $85, $100, $105, $110, $120 , and $130
- Bets on No at $100, $105 , and $110 all have unrealized gains exceeding 200%, $120 bet on No has an unrealized gain over 100%, and $130 bet on No has an unrealized gain over 45%
- The largest unrealized profit is from a $17.3 average price bet that the Oil price at the end of March would not reach $110, with the current

Polymarket's trading volume (Taker Volume) over the past week reached $1.09 billion, marking the first time in history that two consecutive weeks exceeded $1 billion.
Meanwhile, Polymarket captured $1.63 million in fees during that week, setting a new weekly record and accounting for nearly 70% of the on-chain prediction market fees.
Additionally, Opinion's weekly captured fees dropped to $188,000, which is even lower than Limitless, whose fee share declined from over 85% at its peak to less than 10%, which is quite disappointing.

Week-on-Week Weekly Comparison Clearly Reflects the Overall Loss of Confidence in the BSC Prediction Market
Measured by the average trading volume over the past 7 days:
- Probable down 36.07%
- Opinion down 37.56%
- Predict Fun down 38.54%
Currently, these three account for 17% of the prediction market share
It is worth mentioning that other major prediction markets are still maintaining growth momentum
- Kalshi trading volume week-on-week increased by 5.8%, month-on-month increased by 23.49%
- Polymarket week-on-week increased by 27.22%, month-on-month increased by 15.36%

Stop the decline?
Opinion: Yesterday's holdings saw a net inflow of over $9.5 million, ending a streak of 6 consecutive days of net outflows.
Currently, Opinion's holdings have rebounded to approximately $46.3 million, accounting for about 73% of the BSC prediction market's market share.
It feels like the real test begins after the TGE.

No wonder Predict Fun's new addresses have been increasing so rapidly lately
It turns out they were holding back something big
Predict Fun has a total of 62,500 trading addresses
Probable has a total of 34,900 trading addresses
After the acquisition is completed, Predict Fun should soon surpass 100,000 unique trading addresses

Opinion The rate of decline in holdings is faster than expected, with a net outflow of $89.7 million over the past week.
To be objective, the decrease in holdings varies across different sectors, which may indicate where the "brush" (manipulation) is concentrated and what remains relatively sticky.
- The sector with the highest holdings, macro, has experienced the most collapse, dropping from nearly $70 million in holdings to just over $10 million.
- The sports sector's holdings decreased from $21 million to $5.6 million, a decline of over 70%.
- The crypto sector's decline is somewhat

Is it over? BSC Prediction Market Faces Major Blow
- Single-day trading volume drops nearly 60%: From March 1 to 2, daily trading volume decreased from over $94 million to $38.3 million, with Probable experiencing the largest decline, dropping from $58.8 million to $10.02 million
- Continuous large net outflows in open interest: Over the past 3 days, open interest has experienced consecutive large net outflows totaling over $94.6 million, with Opinion experiencing the largest net outflow of over $86.5 million. The overall open interest in the BSC prediction market has decreased to slightly abo

Predict Fun becomes the next target? 🧐
In the past week, the number of new transaction addresses for Predict Fun increased by over 15,000, maintaining an average daily increase of over 3,000 in the past three days.

On the day the US and Israel launched a joint strike against Iran, Polymarket's single-day trading volume hit a record high, with nominal trading volume reaching $478 million.
Among them, the political sector accounted for $220 million, also a record high, representing 46.2% of Polymarket's nominal trading volume on that day.
Additionally, Polymarket Builders also set a new single-day trading volume record at this historic moment.

Polymarket's 5min Up or Down market hits a new single-day record
Daily trading volume exceeds $26 million, including over $21 million in BTC, over $2.6 million in ETH, and over $1.1 million in SOL
Most impressively, the number of 5-minute daily trades has surpassed 2 million, making it the ultimate playground for high-frequency bots
The total number of 5-minute trading addresses has exceeded 120,000, with a recent daily average of 22,000 to 25,000 trading addresses; additionally, two addresses have already accumulated over $10 million in 5-minute trading volume

Hoping for world peace. Today, the wallet is leaking, and I am patiently waiting to break even this weekend🫥
Next week, the Perp DEX on-chain gold and silver is expected to usher in another wave of trading volume高潮

Opinion The accumulated trading volume has exceeded $11 billion (cumulative nominal trading volume over $22 billion).
Currently, the events can be divided into 11 major categories: Crypto, Macro, Sports, Business, Pre-TGE, Culture, Politics, Technology, NBA, Esports, and More.
In terms of trading volume by category, Crypto, Macro, Sports, Business, and Pre-TGE have all surpassed $1 billion, while the Culture category is also approaching the $900 million to $1 billion mark.
Regarding independent traders by category, Crypto and Macro have both exceeded 100,000 traders, and 8 categories hav