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Currently updating the possible retracement levels for Big Pie Auntie:
There are four possible levels for Big Pie's retracement:
Around 78557 (small probability)
Around 65580 (high probability)
Around 56774 (medium probability)
Between 56774 and 65580 (medium probability)
There are four possible levels for Auntie's retracement:
Around 2149 (medium probability)
Around 1742 (high probability)
Between 2149 and 1742 (medium probability)
Between 1742 and 1386 (small probability)

Currently, the situation is that BTC has completed the first wave of decline and entered a rebound cycle; altcoin market capitalization has been compressed to the extreme but is showing resilience. This is very much like a "digging a pit" move. All conditions are quietly being prepared, only waiting for an opportunity, or perhaps it simply can't fall any further, leading to a natural rebound.
Therefore, for the upcoming period, I think there's no need to be too pessimistic. A rebound is not a reversal; the major trend may still take time, but a Spring Festival market rally is worth looking for

Can Bitcoin really fall back to 50,000?
Yesterday, I had a long chat with an old BTC holder.
Not a talker, but someone who has already sold 90% of their position.
His core judgment is very harsh: #BTC is shifting from resisting fiat currency to becoming part of dollar assets. The more Wall Street buys, the weaker its independence.
Currently, hash power is flowing into AI.
Mining companies are converting to data centers and selling coins to survive.
If BTC loses the anti-system card,
How much is it really worth?

Gold just broke 4000 in early October, and now it has surged to 5000 in just over 100 days, a 25% increase. This speed is rare in decades of gold history. It’s worth noting that it took nearly a year to go from 3000 to 4000.
This time, it’s clearly stepping on the accelerator. Even more remarkable is silver, which rose 150% last year and another 24% at the start of this year. Today, it broke a historic 107. The gold-silver ratio has been shrinking, indicating what? Besides safe-haven demand, industrial demand is the real engine. Photovoltaics, electric vehicles, AI servers—each year they consu

Why do altcoins fall even more sharply? It has almost become a rule in the crypto world: when Bitcoin adjusts, altcoins "dive." The reasons are simple: poor liquidity, many retail investors, and high leverage. Many altcoin markets lack sufficient depth; when large funds withdraw, prices can easily flash crash. Additionally, many people trading altcoins like to use high leverage, and when the market moves in the opposite direction, chain reactions of liquidations can intensify the decline. Today’s over 800 million long positions are mostly bets on altcoin rebounds.

Mog Coin (MOG) has decreased by 17.8% over the past week, with a trading price close to $0.000000267 at the time of writing. Unlike other meme coins, MOG shows limited signs of stability. The price structure and momentum indicate further downside risk rather than a reversal of the current market conditions. According to momentum indicators, selling pressure remains intensifying. The capital flow index is at 37.1, well above the usual oversold threshold of 20.0 before a rebound. This suggests that MOG's price may continue to decline, breaking below the $0.000000242 support and sliding toward th

BTC price has fallen nearly 25%, but Wall Street not only did not sell off, they increased their holdings against the trend—this seemingly counterintuitive move hides complex market strategies by institutions. In Q4 2025, institutions significantly increased their holdings of Bitcoin ETF shares, interpreting different strategies in a volatile market through "strategic buying," and this behavior also laid the groundwork for subsequent Bitcoin rebounds.

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The focus of the second half of July is the result of the tariff negotiations: observe whether the market is "Favourable Information realization" or continues to rise.
US Stock Earnings Season: If tech stocks perform poorly, it may weigh on the crypto market. BTC ETF Fund Flow: Recently, the inflow of funds has slowed down, and if it continues to decrease, it may impact the upward momentum.
The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, and short-term news may intensify fluctuations, but the trend is not yet clear. Patiently waiting for opportunities is more prudent than blindly

A sudden transfer of 80,000 BTC from a Bitcoin address that has been silent for 14 years by a Whale has sparked market speculation. Such a level of Whale activity is often not just a simple buy or sell, but may involve institutional operations, such as OTC trading, collateralized lending, or even tax arrangements.
After a Whale transfers a large amount of coins, the market often does not rise immediately; instead, it may enter a period of consolidation or correction. For example, in November 2020, after an early Address transferred 5000 BTC, Bitcoin experienced nearly a month of sideways movem

The chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, clearly stated in his speech yesterday that there will be no interest rate cuts in July, and September may be a more appropriate time. He mentioned that if it weren't for the recent tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration exacerbating inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve (FED) might have started cutting interest rates back in June.
This statement has attracted widespread attention from the market, and Trump subsequently publicly criticized Powell, even threatening to replace the Chairman of The Federal Reserve (FED

Despite the approval of the Bitcoin ETF making it easier for institutional funds to enter the market, the SEC's regulatory attitude towards alts remains unclear, and many funds are hesitant to place bets easily. This round of the bull run focuses more on "value narratives" rather than pure concept speculation.
Projects with practical application scenarios, such as AI, DePIN, and RWA, are more favored by funding, while pure meme coins or altcoins lacking fundamentals are neglected.
Large funds are more willing to allocate Bitcoin and a few leading alts, while projects with small and medium mark

There are several reasons behind this: although the approval of the Bitcoin ETF makes it easier for institutional funds to enter the market, the SEC's regulatory stance on alts remains unclear, and many funds are hesitant to place bets.
This round of the bull market focuses more on "value narratives" rather than pure conceptual speculation. Projects with practical application scenarios, such as AI, DePIN, and RWA, are more favored by funds, while pure meme coins or altcoins lacking fundamentals are neglected.
Large funds are more willing to allocate to Bitcoin and a few leading alts, while sma

Bitcoin has performed relatively steadily, currently oscillating around $107,000. However, upon closer inspection, it has merely returned to the levels of June 17, while the Nasdaq index has already reached historical highs. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index are generally synchronized in direction. If the Nasdaq index continues to surge, Bitcoin may challenge the key resistance level of $110,000.
But the problem is that this round of Bitcoin's rise is a low-volume increase—there is not much capital inflow, and the market is quiet, indicating that investors are st

Summary: Be cautious of pullback risks in the short term. Overall, the decline in small-cap stocks in the US and the low-volume rise of Bitcoin both indicate a decrease in market risk appetite. Although Bitcoin remains strong, the lack of incremental capital support makes the short-term pullback risk significant. There are two key variables to watch next:
Geopolitics: If the situation in the Middle East worsens, it may trigger market fluctuations. US stock trends: If the Nasdaq continues to hit new highs, Bitcoin may rise as well, but if US stocks pull back, the crypto market will also struggl

#鲍威尔发言 The underlying logic of BTC: funds and emotions dominate the next phase of the Federal Reserve meeting. After the market's short-term uncertainty is temporarily lifted, BTC's trend has not exploded as a result. The reason is: short-term funds are still in wait-and-see mode: geopolitical risks have replaced interest rate policies as the core variable influencing short-term fund behavior. Chip distribution shows divergence: strong support below, but increasing pressure above, indicating that the market still lacks consensus on "breaking the previous high." The liquidity environment remai

Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rollercoaster行情. Bitcoin first saw a strong pump, quickly surging, but the good times didn't last long. In the early hours of the 12th, U.S. stocks suddenly大跌, dragging the cryptocurrency market down with it.
#Michael Saylor暗示增持BTC later learned that the situation in the Middle East had changed abruptly, the war had started, and the U.S. stock market had dived first, and the currency market had followed suit. It can be said that it is difficult for the current crypto market to "stand alone", no longer have an independent market as before, and

#现货比特币ETF持仓破110万枚 ETH is rising strongly, and alts are following the trend. Ethereum's recent performance has been impressive, as its price not only broke through key resistance levels but also drove ecosystem projects like SOL, LDO, and OP to rise.
There are several important tailwinds behind this rally: ETF funds continue to flow in: Ethereum spot ETF fund inflows have steadily increased, with a net inflow of $125 million last night, and the market's long-term confidence in ETH is growing. Relaxation of staking regulations: The SEC has loosened its attitude towards ETH staking, and may even

#现货比特币ETF持仓破110万枚
Sino-US peace talks "God assists", institutions frantically sweep bitcoin This time, the core driving force of Bitcoin's surge is the crazy buying of institutional whales, which is completely different from the previous bull market dominated by retail investors.
Last night, the Bitcoin ETF flowed nearly $400 million in a single day, the Ethereum ETF also attracted $52 million, and BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF broke through the scale of $70 billion at an astonishing speed, crushing the record of gold ETFs! The micro-strategy is more ruthless, directly throwing money to buy 1,045 b