Notcoin price rebounds: oversold bounce or bear trap?

• Notcoin (NOT) price rebounds 2% but still trades far below key averages.
• Community hype fuels optimism despite weak liquidity.
• TON ecosystem buzz adds short-term speculative support.

Notcoin price has rebounded by around 2% today, breaking the long bearish trend that has weighed the altcoin down from the long-awaited price recovery.

The modest uptick comes after weeks of pressure that pushed NOT toward fresh multi-month lows.

Early September brought a short-lived surge from $0.001619 to $0.002043 on September 13, but that rally faded quickly, and the token slid back, hitting an all-time low of $0.0016 on September 22, 2025.

The Telegram-linked coin now trades near $0.001678 with a market capitalisation of roughly $167.4 million and daily volumes approaching $27 million, figures that underline both renewed interest and fragile liquidity.

###Technical bounce or false dawn?

Technically, the price action has characteristics of a short-term rebound.

CoinMarketCapThe RSI on the 3-hour chart has risen from deeply oversold territory to about 34.94, while the MACD histogram has flattened and turned marginally less negative, signalling that traders have interpreted this as a cue for bargain hunting.

Structural momentum also looks weak.

NOT sits below its key short-term averages, with the 7-day SMA sitting near $0.001644 and the 30-day EMA at around $0.001773.

Support holds near $0.00166, and a drop under $0.00155 would expose the token to the risk of fresh lows.

###Community and TON tailwinds

Part of the rebound reflects social momentum and ecosystem spillover rather than fundamental upgrades.

Notcoin’s backers highlight a massive Telegram-driven holder base and a narrative of near-full circulation — roughly 97% of the max supply is already in the market — as reasons to expect lower future sell pressure.

That scarcity storyline has animated forums and encouraged accumulation despite macro headwinds.

Ecosystem headlines have helped, too.

The success of TON-focused projects such as Hamster Kombat has driven renewed interest in TON-linked tokens, and Notcoin’s perceived proximity to Telegram’s user base has fed bullish chatter.

This tailwind is speculative by nature: the coin benefits from association with TON’s growth, yet it has no formal partnership that would guarantee sustained flows.

###Notcoin price forecast

Optimistic price targets have proliferated, with some analysts and community voices citing forecasts of a tenfold move to roughly $0.022 by 2025.

Those predictions hinge on aggressive listings, continued viral adoption across Telegram, and the rollout of mini-apps and game-fi features.

At the same time, rational scepticism remains warranted: dilution risk from remaining tokens, limited on-chain utility today, and thin liquidity make lofty targets contingent rather than probable.

Traders should watch three things closely: whether NOT can reclaim and hold the $0.00187 area, daily traded volume that helps sustain rallies, and broader crypto market dynamics, including Bitcoin dominance.

Notably, rising volume accompanying gains would lend credibility to the current bounce, while a weak volume would point to a likely retracement towards further lows.

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