Japan-China relations continue to deteriorate, and Japanese law professor Nayako Eto analyzes the causes behind them and possible subsequent developments

Tensions between Japan and China have risen again. Japan’s Ministry of Defense recently announced that a J-15 fighter jet taking off from a Chinese Navy aircraft carrier used radar to irradiate the Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-15, raising concerns about the increased risk of military conflict. Against the backdrop of continued diplomatic tensions, China reacted strongly to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s “Taiwan Matters” remarks on the Taiwan issue, further intensifying bilateral confrontation.

Pivot program host Chisa Kotemori interviewed Yasuko Eto ( Note 1), a professor at the Faculty of Law at Gakushuin University and an expert on international politics in East Asia, to provide an in-depth analysis of the deep structure and possible direction of the deterioration of Japan-China relations. Eto pointed out that the current situation is no longer an extension of a single diplomatic conflict, but is caused by China’s desire to reshape its international image, to be packaged as an international pacifist, and to strategically exploit the contradictions between the past and the present with Japan. The following is a compilation of the key points of the interview video.

China has reshaped its position through the international situation

Eto believes that since the outbreak of the Ukraine-Russia war in 2022, the global political order has been turbulent, and China is trying to adjust its international positioning. In the past, China was often seen as a developing country, a country with human rights disputes, and a non-democratic system, but now it is trying to portray itself as a “victor of World War II”, a defender of free trade, and a “responsible power”. Under this narrative framework, Japan’s history of aggression against China during World War II and the improvement of relations with Taiwan are regarded as the most suitable role for China to be portrayed as a “villain”. China’s current image strategy is to establish itself as an international pacifist and a powerful and respected power that can shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the new international order.

Is the radar irradiation incident a high-level strategy in China?

Speaking about the latest radar irradiation incident, Eto believes that such behavior is unlikely to come directly from the highest level of the central government, but it is most likely that under the overall atmosphere of high-level pressure on Japan, the middle level of the military and even frontline units have made aggressive actions. However, she stressed that Beijing will still avoid the situation getting out of control. Since China has not made this military operation public and has not made a clear statement on the incident, it also reflects to some extent that it is also worried that the military’s excessive aggression may cause chain consequences.

China’s scruples: “stepping on the brakes” at the economic level

Eto pointed out that despite the increase in stimulus actions at the diplomatic and military levels, China has clearly exercised restraint in the economic field, only putting pressure on symbolic industries such as seafood imports, and not taking substantial attacks on supply chains and Japanese companies, due to weak internal economic conditions such as sluggish consumption, continued decline in real estate, sluggish job market and deteriorating local finances.

In this context, foreign-funded enterprises, technical cooperation and transnational supply chains are becoming increasingly important to local economies. If excessive crackdowns are taken on Japanese companies, it may trigger the withdrawal of foreign capital and cause secondary damage to China’s economy. In addition, China’s recent policy changes on rare earth exports have also made it even more afraid to abuse the “rare earth brand” to avoid accelerating the establishment of a de-Sinicized supply chain around the world. Eto pointed out that China may sometimes make irrational decisions, but on economic issues, they know that excessive pressure will only bite them back.

China’s public opinion control: vague and deterrent pressure

In terms of public opinion manipulation, she analyzed that China has always created a chilling effect through “selective repression”. If the official wants to suppress a certain type of discussion, it will deliberately crack down on specific cases and make others self-censor. This model also applies to foreign companies, leaving them in a state of uncertainty and vigilance. While this strategy can create a deterrent, China has avoided large-scale targeting of Japanese companies in recent years, knowing that it will have serious international and economic costs.

Japan-China future relations: will not improve in the short term, and the impact is expected to continue until next year

Eto believes that Japan-China relations are difficult to improve in the short term. Japan is planning to complete the revision of its security documents by 2026, which will address strengthening self-defense capabilities and China’s most sensitive issues. Beijing is expected to continue to portray this as undermining the post-war international order. She predicts that the rebound at the diplomatic level may gradually ease in a few months, but the overall tension will continue until at least next year.

The next most likely turning point is the APEC summit in China. If Japan and China can arrange leaders’ talks during the meeting, it is expected to be an opportunity to cool down tensions, but this opportunity still depends on the progress of security policy discussions.

Japan needs to be wary of strategic exchanges between the United States and China

Eto emphasized that changes in U.S.-China relations will have a profound impact on Japan. The Trump administration’s unpredictable policies have raised concerns that the United States and China may also engage in strategic exchanges in the future, and Japan has become a bargaining chip that can be used, and similar situations have occurred many times in history. Although the U.S. State Department and military have emphasized the importance of strengthening Japan-US cooperation in recent years, decisions at the White House level may still change unexpectedly. She reminded that Japan needs to avoid passive imbalances on the geopolitical scales as the competition between the United States and China deepens. Eto Nayako believes that the current Japan-China relationship is ostensibly dominated by diplomatic wars of words and military provocations, but the real driving force comes from the transformation of the global order, the construction of China’s self-image, and the complex structure of Japan’s domestic political and economic pressures.

In this tension affecting Asian security and global supply chains, Japan needs to respond simultaneously in diplomatic, economic and security policies; China also needs to be wary of taking risks that will backfire on its own development. She emphasized that although the risk of escalating conflict cannot be ignored, both sides are also aware of the high costs of excessive escalation, and how to balance pressure and restraint will be the key to determining the future direction of the situation.

Note 1. Nahoko Eto introduced:

Professor of the Faculty of Law at Gakushuin University and head of the China Research Group at the Institute of Geoeconomics, his expertise is in East Asian international politics and Japan-China relations. Master’s degree from Stanford University and Ph.D. from Keio University. Juris Doctor. He has worked at the Japan Institute of Economic Research (JETRO) and the Center for Regional Studies at the National Institute for the Humanities.

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