After taking a few days to rest and prepare for tomorrow night's live broadcast, I also took the opportunity to clear out my information cocoon. I often leave without saying goodbye, going silent and alone for two or three days, giving myself a space for relatively Depth thinking. As I get older, I increasingly rely on this strange physiological and psychological need. Although I know it can bring some not-so-good effects, there's nothing I can do; I can't quit it.
This bad habit originated during the pandemic in 2020. At first, I always liked to sit in the car and daydream after parking it properly. Later, it gradually evolved into going out to find a place to hide by myself. Perhaps this is what people often refer to as the confusion of turning forty. It seems that in this day and age, everyone has caught a bit of mental illness, busy with making a living during the day and returning to the soul at night, healing alone.
So I often emphasize a point when writing posts: everyone has their own story, and there is no need to look too highly at others or too lowly at oneself. Instead of blindly admiring others, it is better to learn and understand yourself, and take good care of yourself. After all, for those who want to engage in financial investment in the long term, mental and psychological states are far more important than the size of positions.
Recently, I have observed the dynamic news, and most of the voices are actually bullish when the market rises and bearish when it falls. Retail investors are keen on betting on both sides; after a prolonged decline, they want to short at the slightest rise, and after a prolonged rise, they want to long at the slightest drop. Without a few years of experience, relying on personal guesses about the short-term market direction makes it really hard to make money. Over the weekend, when altcoins slightly increased, I saw someone say DOGE would surge to 0.5, ADA would reach 1.3, and SOL would definitely exceed 500. When it fell back on Monday, they started wailing again, which is quite amusing. This long-term self-torturing mentality of being a giant baby can only be cured by one remedy: losing everything and exiting the market, then you will have no more pain.
As long as you are a retail investor who has experienced a round of bull and bear markets, you may understand that trading BTC in spot and contracts involves different strategies and techniques. The logic and skills for trading BTC and altcoins in spot are also different. It is difficult to predict the rise and fall of a cryptocurrency solely based on some short-term candlestick patterns and indicators. Without relatively mature position management skills, predicting the short-term trends of cryptocurrencies is essentially akin to speculative gambling, which is essentially betting on size.
Especially at such a significant turning point, we might rely more on experience. Good news turning into bad news, major events causing drastic changes, these are all well-known phrases among seasoned investors. But will things really unfold 100% according to this kind of script? No, the logic behind short-term price fluctuations is driven by the liquidity needed to hunt for chips. News does not affect trends, but trends will align with news to achieve corresponding prices.
Many of our beginner players only see the surface of the problem. For this relatively clear gameplay, the best strategy is to observe without participating. Reviewing the period from Old Bao's speech on August 22 to now, it has been 26 days. BTC and ETH have maintained a high volatility of about ±10%, while most mainstream altcoins have pulled back around 15%-25%, creating a golden buying opportunity. During this time, ETH also experienced a quick rise and fall, breaking through the historical high and then immediately dropping. The manipulation by the whales is indeed very clever; while maintaining market enthusiasm, they have been alternating between bullish and bearish news. As a result, there is an interest rate meeting tomorrow night, yet the price remains around the vicinity of August 22, and the market has quietly harvested nearly 5 billion USD in liquidity chips from both bulls and bears.
Do you feel that this script is very familiar? Since the beginning of 2024, we have seen this kind of routine at least 10 times. So in the dynamics of late August, I also made corresponding predictions, but after the real K-line came out, how many of us still had positions? How many made money during this period? What was your psychological change like? If you don't review and reflect on these questions, even if a few more rounds of this kind of obvious game appear, you may find it hard to achieve significant results.
It's not that I want to say how amazing I am, I just want to tell you that if you calm down and review the 4-hour and daily K-lines, you can also see some insights. Through the review of K-lines and understanding of the macro situation, in the past three years, at least in terms of overall direction judgment, I have made relatively few mistakes. The biggest failure was the significant drop in ETH in the first half of the year, which indeed exceeded my understanding. However, during this period, I did not cut my losses and leave the market, but instead continuously fueled everyone's faith. I believe this is the true sharing of trading; at least I will clearly tell you what my thinking logic is and what my judgment basis is, rather than shouting slogans that I am your spiritual support, and urging everyone to jump on board!
In fact, the current market situation gives us more operational space than the first half of the year. At least the news on the surface is leaning towards positive, unlike during the trade war in March and April when holding full positions left us completely in the dark. Experienced traders know that the fourth quarter is the harvest season. After a small adjustment period of over half a year, I currently have both USDT and positions. I won't regret pulling out some chips early; that's part of position management to help cope with potential large drops because no one knows for sure how the market will move. We can only use relatively scientific and reasonable planning to comprehensively respond to all possible situations, especially considering that we cannot determine how the short-term will unfold based on the stance of Fed Chairman Powell's speech tomorrow night.
A 25% interest rate cut is inevitable, but if old Powell speaks hawkishly and chooses to go against Trump, it will trigger pessimistic market sentiment, reduce the number of rate cuts, and delay QE. In that case, this round of bull market is likely to be postponed. I mentioned in my previous article that there would be an altcoin season in the fourth quarter, based on the assumption of three rate cuts, maintaining a neutral interest rate before December, and combining it with the pattern of peaks occurring 500 days after the halving cycle. For now, it still seems feasible to follow this prediction, as most of my altcoin positions have over 80% profit. It's just that the timing is different from my expectations, and reaching this time point has increased the risks considerably.
I know that many friends are feeling a bit anxious right now, especially regarding the altcoin peak indicators. Since the day before yesterday, the altcoin season index has exceeded 80 and has lit up the green light! Many people are confused, and it hasn't really gone up much. Some friends might see hope of breaking even, while others are anxiously waiting for altcoins to peak while sitting on meager profits. Many fear that this bull run will end abruptly, leaving behind a mess. In fact, this psychological reflection is due to having been in a prolonged downturn, leading to fear and confusion after so much volatility. I still believe it won't end this early, especially while Trump is still in office. Every time I see him bouncing around, waving the beautiful country's cryptocurrency flag, I believe there is still hope for the market, because this person is better at making money than our big boss.
It's late at night, and I've casually written for more than two hours. If everyone is free tomorrow night from 8:00 to 9:30, let's meet in the live room and chat.
