Fed's Decision Outlook: Market Focus on Powell's Press Conference

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On October 29, the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the policy rate to 3.75-4.00%. At the same time, it is anticipated that the Central Bank will announce an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT). This meeting will not release a quarterly economic forecast report, so the focus will mainly be on Powell's press conference, where it is expected that Fed Chairman Powell will again characterize the rate cut as a Risk Management measure and refrain from disclosing too much information to maintain market expectations stable in the absence of key economic data. The current market expects a rate cut by the Fed in October to be a certainty, with the probability of a rate cut in December also approaching 100%. By 2026, a total rate cut of 117 basis points is expected, higher than the Fed's forecast of 75 basis points ( Jin10 ).

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