Opinion: 2026 may迎 "Crypto Winter," but institutionalization and on-chain transformation are accelerating

On December 29, Cantor Fitzgerald stated in its latest year-end report that Bitcoin may be entering a multi-month downtrend cycle, and the market could be ahead of schedule in entering the “crypto winter” of 2026. Analyst Brett Knoblauch believes that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 85 days from its recent high, and the price may continue to face pressure, potentially testing the Strategy’s average cost line of around $75,000. However, unlike previous cycles, this downturn is unlikely to be accompanied by large-scale liquidations or systemic crashes. Cantor pointed out that the current market is dominated by institutions rather than retail investors, and the “divergence” between token prices and on-chain fundamentals is widening, especially in the areas of DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure. On the regulatory front, the passage of the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is seen as a key turning point, which could reduce policy uncertainty and encourage banks and asset management firms to participate more deeply in the crypto market. Cantor summarized that although 2026 may not usher in a new bull market, the institutionalization, compliance pathways, and on-chain infrastructure of the crypto industry are gradually being solidified alongside the cooling of prices.