Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

The U.S. federal government argues that sports event wagering should be treated as a financial derivative rather than gambling, and it seeks to bar Arizona from enforcing against Kalshi, the prediction market platform. If the court backs the federal position, prediction markets will operate under uniform nationwide regulation, weakening each state’s ability to regulate. This legal dispute concerns the legitimacy of prediction markets and the allocation of regulatory authority, affecting the future development of the industry.

U.S. stocks rebounded after the ceasefire agreement was announced, nearing a full recovery of the losses caused by the Iran war, but the oil market remained cautious, with prices holding at elevated levels. Investors’ confidence in future economic and political developments increased, and they may continue to add to their positions.

Gate News message, April 10, after the CPI data was released, the latest price of WTI U.S. crude oil (U.S. West Texas Intermediate) was $97.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil (the international benchmark) was latest at $95.46 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY (an indicator that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies) fell 10 points in the short term, with the latest reading at 98.68.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate recorded 3.3%, with gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase.

Gate News, on April 10, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is “not impossible.” She also noted that the likelihood of a rate hike is lower than the likelihood of cutting rates or keeping interest rates unchanged.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, OJUICE (Orange Juice) has dropped by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Bitcoin prices fell to $70,981 amid uncertainty over a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, affecting market confidence. While Bitcoin saw a minor decrease, altcoins like Ether and Solana faced sharper declines, and global risk assets struggled with tightening monetary policy.

On April 10, Hyperinsight data shows that on the Hyperliquid platform, 14 million-level mega whales established crude oil positions: 10 opened WTIOIL long positions, and 4 opened BRENTOIL long positions. All are in the long direction, and there are no new shorts entering the market. The WTIOIL long mega whale liquidation price is $87.7, with an open position size of $5.02 million; the BRENTOIL mega whale liquidation price is $87.2, with an open position size of $1.91 million.

On April 10, Abraxas Capital closed out short positions of about $160 million in WTIOIL and BRENTOIL on the Hyperliquid platform, generating roughly $10.15 million in profits. Its current main positions are a $20.5 million long position in BTC and a $30.8 million short position in gold.

The Office of Management and Administration at the White House sent a warning email to employees on March 23, prohibiting the use of their position to speculate in the futures market. The warning came after the announcement by Trump of a pause in attacks on Iran, and suspicious trading appeared in the market. Senior officials described the email as a timely “reminder.”

Gate News Update: On April 10, Ebrahim Azizi, the chair of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee, said that the Parliament has put forward a proposal to permanently ban tankers associated with the United States and Israel from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the proposal, ships associated with Israel or traveling to and from Israel would also be prohibited from passage. The ban would also apply to countries that take action against the “Resistance Front.”

Gate News, April 10, international crude oil prices rose briefly. WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) broke above $100 per barrel, up 2.04% during the day; Brent crude oil (North Sea Brent, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) stood above $95 per barrel, up 1.15% during the day.

Jefferies’ economists report that the Middle East conflict affects all parties. The United States is the least affected, due to oil and gas price increases, Russia is the winner, and Iran may lift sanctions. The main losers are the Gulf states and Asia, which relies on Middle East oil and gas, while Europe has lost ground geopolitically.

The Iranian government charges oil tankers a $1 per-barrel toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and requires payment in bitcoin to bypass U.S. sanctions. This move has caused extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin’s price surging, highlighting the importance of digital assets in geopolitics. Global shipping has been disrupted, Iran and the United States have taken differing positions in ceasefire talks, and financial markets have also roiled in response to this event.

Middle East crude oil producers are asking Asian refiners to submit their April and May loading schedules in preparation for restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran has not lifted its blockade of the waterway, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement offers hope for reopening. Saudi Aramco has also asked customers to apply for May loading.

Market maker Keyrock and tokenization platform Securitize jointly released a report predicting that the on-chain transferable distributed RWA market will grow from $29.0 billion to $400.0 billion, an increase of over 1,000%. It is expected that by 2028, RWA perpetual contracts could account for 50% of the total on-chain derivatives market. Currently, tokenized RWAs account for less than 0.1% of the global tokenizable market.

Middle East conflict turned for the better after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with market risk sentiment recovering. U.S. stock index futures jumped sharply. Bitcoin broke through the $72,000 high, while oil prices plunged. Although the current rebound is significant, analysts warn that uncertainty around how the ceasefire agreement will be carried out and the overall economic pressure may still limit how long the rally can last.

On April 10, analyst Yu Jin reported that a giant whale established a $74.47 million crude oil short position on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized gain of about $1.2 million. It consists of 399k barrels of WTI crude oil and 390k barrels of Brent crude oil.

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.