The analyst compared the price of Bitcoin to a compressed spring - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, future

# Analyst compared the Bitcoin rate to a compressed spring

The last time a similar “asymmetric risk-reward ratio” was observed in Bitcoin was during the COVID-19 pandemic. This opinion was shared by the head of the digital assets research department at Bitwise in Europe, Andre Dragosh.

This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.

It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex — because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.

The question investors constantly face is:

“What is priced in… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025

“Then Bitcoin quickly recovered after the shock in March 2020, and then it grew six times. Call it a compressed spring, a ball under water — whatever you like,” said the analyst.

He noted that from the perspective of macroeconomic news, investors are pricing in recession fears into the rate of the first cryptocurrency. In reality, the threat of a downturn is receding. Therefore, all negative narratives are already factored into the quotes of digital gold, according to Dragoș.

“I believe that expectations for global economic growth will accelerate from this point on, based on the volumes of monetary and credit stimulus, which indicates a resumption of acceleration, including the year 2026,” the expert is confident.

Historical Optimism

Trader under the nickname Mister Crypto is confident that Bitcoin will traditionally show growth at the end of the year after Thanksgiving (27 November).

Bitcoin always pumps after Thanksgiving.

I doubt this time will be different. pic.twitter.com/LnhpJaVmWW

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) November 29, 2025

In his opinion, the short-term market structure shows signs of stabilization after the capitulation. Data indicates that major players are opening new long positions in Bitcoin. At the same time, investor sentiment is in the extreme fear zone, which historically preceded price recoveries.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has approached the level of 30. In previous bullish cycles, this mark coincided with market lows and reversals.

The likelihood of a rebound is supported by the deviation of Bitcoin's trend from the 50-week moving average chart, which currently stands at $102 000. Most often, the cryptocurrency restored parity with the metric.

Mister Crypto also noted the favorable macroeconomic backdrop for digital gold. Markets are anticipating the cessation of the United States Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy and a reduction in the key interest rate in December.

Regarding the long-term prospects of cryptocurrency, the expert gave a cautious forecast. According to his assessment, the market is generally in a bearish phase, and a new decline may follow the recovery since the conditions for sustainable growth have not been established.

Let us remind you that ARK Invest analysts listed the December drivers for Bitcoin.