# Crypto Market December 2, 2025: Brief Overview and 5 Predictions

# Current status (morning December 2 UTC)
- BTC: ~$85 000 (−6% over 24 hours, −9% YTD)
- ETH: ~$2 780 (−8% in 24 hours)
- Total capitalization: <$2.5 trillion
- Leaders of the decline: XRP -12%, BNB -10%, SOL -9%
- Crypto-stocks: COIN −4%, HOOD −5%, MSTR −10%

# Main Reasons for the Crash
1. Reversal of yen carry trade (The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates)
2. Global sell-off of bonds → risk-off sentiment
3. Lack of clarity regarding the timeline for the reduction of the Fed's rates
4. Weak November + seasonal volatility of December

5 predictions for the next 4 weeks ( until the end of 2025)

1. **BTC**
Short-term bounce to $90–92k within 7–10 days (RSI is oversold, support $84k holds ).
Probability: 70%

2. **ETH**
Test $2 500–$2 600 in the coming days, then return above $3 000 by December 31.
Probability: 65%

3. **Total Capitalization**
A drop below $2 trillion in the next 72 hours, then stabilization.
Probability: 85%

4. **Altcoins**
After the stabilization of BTC: growth of XRP, INJ, TON, and meme coins by 20–40% in a week.
Probability: 60%

5. **BTC as of December 31, 2025**
Year-end closing in the range $98 000 – $105 000 (institutional purchases + New Year's rally).
Probability: 55%

Conclusion: we are currently in a deep correction, not the beginning of a bear market. December will remain volatile, but the probability of a green year-end close is above 50%.