Wu said that Delphi Digital stated on X that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 25bp in December, bringing the federal funds rate to around 3.5%—3.75%. The forward curve is pricing in at least three more cuts by 2026, possibly reaching the low 3% range by year-end. Meanwhile, QT will end on December 1, the Treasury General Account (TGA) will shift to being drawn down, and the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) has been depleted, resulting in the first net positive liquidity environment since early 2022. The firm stated that by 2026, policy will shift from a "headwind" to a "mild tailwind."
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Wu said that Delphi Digital stated on X that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 25bp in December, bringing the federal funds rate to around 3.5%—3.75%. The forward curve is pricing in at least three more cuts by 2026, possibly reaching the low 3% range by year-end. Meanwhile, QT will end on December 1, the Treasury General Account (TGA) will shift to being drawn down, and the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) has been depleted, resulting in the first net positive liquidity environment since early 2022. The firm stated that by 2026, policy will shift from a "headwind" to a "mild tailwind."