Next Week's Macro Outlook: Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI Double "Lightning" Coming, Is the Dollar's "Life and Death Line" Already Flashing Red?

Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index;

Monday 22:30, Fed Governor Mester Speech;

Monday 23:30, FOMC Permanent Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams Speech on Economic Outlook;

Tuesday 21:30, US November Unemployment Rate, US November Non-Farm Payrolls (Seasonally Adjusted), US October Retail Sales MoM;

Wednesday 22:05, FOMC Permanent Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams Opening Remarks at the 2025 Forex Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed;

Thursday 01:30, 2027 FOMC Voting Member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speech on Economic Outlook;

Thursday 21:30, US November Unadjusted CPI YoY/Core CPI YoY, US November Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM/Core CPI MoM; US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13; US December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Next week's US CPI data release will be a critical turning point for the dollar's movement. If the CPI data is below expectations (currently the latest figure is 3%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target), it will further confirm the reasonableness of the Fed's rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; otherwise, it could reverse this trend.