#非农数据超预期 Unemployment rate soars to a 4-year high! Crypto market shock and volatility, does the Fed have a big move up its sleeve?

Last night, the US November non-farm payroll data was officially released. Employment increased slightly beyond market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to 4.6%, hitting a four-year high. Coupled with the largest decline in non-farm employment in five years in October and stagnant retail sales, the conflicting data triggered intense volatility in the crypto market in a short period, though overall fluctuations remained controlled. Bitcoin initially surged to the 88,000 level before quickly dropping to the 86,000 support level, then rebounded rapidly to a daily high of 88,100. After a brief pullback, it remained in a narrow range between 87,000 and 88,000 during the early morning hours.

Macro Perspective
The mixed non-farm data further reinforced market expectations for the continuation of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, with the probability of a rate cut in March next year slightly increasing. Combined with the dovish tone of the December FOMC meeting, which included a 25bps rate cut and the initiation of a lightweight balance sheet expansion, easing expectations provided some support for Bitcoin's price. However, attention should be paid to the risk-off sentiment triggered by the approaching rate hike window of the Bank of Japan, which significantly suppresses rebound momentum.
It is worth noting that Fed Vice Chairman Williams' latest dovish statement yesterday mentioned upward risks to the employment market, further confirming the policy easing direction and providing marginal support to market sentiment.

Technical Analysis
The support from the lower Bollinger Band on the Bitcoin daily chart effectively triggered a rebound, but the resistance pattern formed by the death cross of moving averages above is particularly prominent. The four-hour MACD indicator shows decreasing volume, suggesting that rebound momentum is accumulating. However, the RSI indicator is approaching overbought territory, and combined with the gradually diminishing hourly momentum, a short-term rebound correction is likely to revert to weak sideways movement.