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Most traders have fallen into this trap—buying at breakouts only to get slapped in the face. What I want to say is, not all breakouts are worth chasing.
Let's clarify one point first: what does a breakout represent? It indeed indicates strength, but what kind of breakout are we talking about? If you blindly follow a market breakout without understanding the context, you truly haven't grasped the logic of the market.
So when is a breakout truly worth paying attention to? Today, I will break down four common traps.
**Trap 1: High-level breakout with massive volume**
Imagine the market has already run a significant distance, and the short-term gains are quite substantial. Then a breakout occurs, accompanied by a noticeable increase in trading volume—I mean a volume level that is extraordinary. What does this usually indicate? A divergence between bulls and bears reaching its peak. Some are taking profits, others are chasing the rally, leading to active trading. But this precisely signals a breakdown in consensus, and the market's warning lights are flashing. The larger the volume, the deeper the divergence. Such breakouts should be approached with caution.
**Trap 2: Pullback with decreasing volume after a breakout**
Unlike the first type, after the breakout, the market begins to pull back the next day, but the trading volume shrinks significantly during the pullback. This typically occurs during two scenarios: either during the accumulation phase at low levels or early in an uptrend. The pullback isn't deep; it might stabilize at about halfway to the breakout point or higher. What does this imply? Support is solid, and the pullback is just a shakeout by the main players. How many times have you seen this pattern? Usually, the market continues higher afterward.
**Trap 3: Multiple failed break attempts**
The intraday chart shows a rollercoaster—limit-up, failed break, then re-approaching the limit-up again, cycling several times in a day. What does this signal? Weak control of the market. The main players want to push higher but can't sustain it, repeatedly testing but the market response is insufficient. In such cases, the risk outweighs the opportunity.
**Trap 4: Sparse volume on limit-up**
The breakout occurs, but the order book shows very weak support, with few chasing the rally. This indicates a lack of enthusiasm among buyers. At this point, if the market reverses, there's a high probability that it won't hold the support levels below.
**What is a truly strong breakout?**
Conversely, a quick breakout in the early session is considered strong—speed indicates high recognition. The larger the volume on the limit-up, the stronger the market consensus. If the breakout only happens toward the end of the session, it often reflects weakness in the main players or even a trap to lure more buyers.
Remember these four traps, and next time you analyze the market, you'll be able to avoid most pitfalls.