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The Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts has once again become the market's focus. After a 25 basis point cut as scheduled in December, the interest rate dropped to the 3.5%-3.75% range, but internal disagreements surfaced—Goolsbee and Schmidt voted against maintaining the current rate, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. What does this divergence really indicate?

Powell's statements are crucial: "Interest rates are approaching a neutral level," and the FOMC will remain on hold. The market generally interprets this as a signal to pause rate cuts at the January meeting. But don’t be fooled by this signal—the core logic of the Federal Reserve has not changed. Maintaining stable employment remains the top priority; even if tariffs push up inflation, they will still prioritize a soft labor market. The December rate cut is a vivid proof of this.

Recently, the CPI has fallen back to 2.7%, which reinforces market expectations for further rate cuts. The institutional forecast path is as follows: a 25 basis point cut in March and June next year, pushing rates to 3%-3.25%, with a possible third rate cut window in the second half of the year. Even if economic data remains strong, the new chair taking office in May could bring a more dovish shift.

The real variable is whether the new government will appoint decision-makers more inclined toward easing. If so, the rate cut cycle might far exceed market expectations. Conversely, the inflation risks caused by escalating tariffs could also force the Fed to hit the brakes in the second half. By 2026, the Federal Reserve stands at a crossroads, and the global markets are waiting for answers.