#通胀与经济增长 Looking at this FOMC decision, the scene that flashes in my mind is still the one from 2015. Back then, it was also a tug-of-war — hawkish voices were deafening, but at the critical voting moment, the tough tone softened. Sometimes, history really does play out like a recurring drama.

This time, the dovish and moderate outcome on the surface seems like a victory for rate cuts, but the details hide more complex elements. Anna Wong predicts a 100 basis point rate cut next year, which is quite interesting in the current environment — it assumes wage growth remains weak and inflation won't reignite. However, Morgan Stanley takes a different stance, believing that a combination of stronger growth and stubborn inflation will lead the Fed to cut rates by far less than the market prices in.

This divergence is not just a matter of differing opinions but reflects fundamentally different understandings of the economic trajectory. I have experienced many such moments — when the market is celebrating rate cuts, it often coincides with the most concealed risks. This was the case at the end of 2018 and early 2022. The relationship between inflation and economic growth has never been linear; their tug-of-war determines the turning points of the cycle.

Morgan Stanley describes the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4% as too low, which is a noteworthy judgment. If growth is truly as resilient as expected, current pricing could indeed collapse. History tells me that when there is such a wide divergence among institutions, it often means the market has not fully digested a key variable. This time, that variable might be whether inflation will really subside.