Christmas season, but the market is sending dangerous signals. US stocks are soaring wildly, gold hitting new highs, silver fluctuating sharply, and even A-shares hovering around 4000 points. Beneath the apparent prosperity, I faintly sense that something is amiss.

The most bizarre phenomenon is this—silver once again surpassing oil in value. Last week during Asian trading hours, spot silver broke through $72 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over $43, nearly a 150% rise. Meanwhile, international oil prices are still hovering around $60 per barrel. This "inversion" has only happened once in 45 years, and every time it has appeared, it’s not a good omen.

Looking at gold. Just as 2025 began, spot gold prices already surged past $4,500. The speed is almost unbelievable.

What’s even more worth pondering are the actions of those big players. Burry started betting against US stocks two months ago, opening short positions on giants like Nvidia. He straightforwardly said: the bubble will burst completely within 2 years. Soros recently came out again warning of an economic crisis and financial collapse. What about Buffett? He’s been aggressively selling off heavy holdings like Apple and hoarding cash in a one-sided manner.

These are not marketing accounts, nor do they repeatedly say one thing and do another. Why would they go against the crowd and bet against the market? Aren’t they afraid of being ridiculed if their predictions fail? Don’t they care about the reputation they’ve built over a lifetime?

Perhaps the madness will continue, and bullets will fly for a while longer. But I still prefer to hit the brakes first and observe calmly.