Recently, two phenomena have emerged in the global financial markets that are worth paying attention to, and their interaction logic is becoming increasingly clear.

First is the performance of precious metals. Spot gold has broken through the $4,500 per ounce mark for the first time in history. Silver has also hit new records simultaneously. What is driving this? On one hand, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are heating up; on the other hand, geopolitical instability is also boosting demand for safe-haven assets. The combination of these two forces has created this rally.

At the same time, there are new variables at the policy level. Some officials have publicly stated that candidates whose positions are inconsistent with the Fed's are not suitable to serve as Federal Reserve Chair, and emphasized that the new Chair should proactively cut rates when the economy is doing well. This statement directly targets the Fed's decision-making independence and carries significant weight.

However, economic data has somewhat cooled these expectations. The US initial unemployment claims are reported at 214,000, below expectations and at a three-year low. This indicates that the labor market remains quite tight, and the need for the Fed to cut rates sharply in the short term is not as urgent. The market immediately responded, with traders now estimating that the probability of maintaining current rates before March exceeds 50%.

There is an interesting tension here. On one side, policy inclination seems to favor a loose environment; on the other, economic data does not fully justify such a move. The policy argument is that rate cuts can alleviate public dissatisfaction with high borrowing costs, especially benefiting the real estate market, which is positive for overall economic outlook and market sentiment.

The cryptocurrency market reacts very sensitively to all this. Once the market expects a loosening cycle to truly arrive, Bitcoin and other risk assets will be re-priced. In this environment, gold and Bitcoin often show different behaviors—gold is more driven by safe-haven demand and actual interest rate declines, while Bitcoin is more focused on liquidity abundance and the reassessment of risk assets.

Looking ahead to 2026, mainstream analysis suggests that the Fed's room for rate cuts is actually limited, with expectations of only two cuts throughout the year. But what is the premise of this judgment? It depends on who will succeed the current Chair after his resignation in May. If the new Chair indeed leans toward a more accommodative policy stance, then the easing cycle could be more intense and longer-lasting than current market expectations.

This expectation gap is precisely the most sensitive part of the current market. Ethereum also has opportunities in this context—ecosystem upgrades tend to attract more attention when liquidity environments improve. The performance of altcoins also depends on changes in overall risk appetite. In short, once easing expectations become consensus, these assets will benefit.