A financial analysis report went viral yesterday: the US is expected to have three more interest rate cuts by 2026. At first glance, this seems far off, but it hides the underlying logic for the upcoming crypto market.

Let's start with the policy perspective. Currently, US economic data remains relatively resilient, so the market has largely digested the expectation of a rapid rate cut in January. However, the new Federal Reserve candidate openly stated in public that the Fed has already fallen behind on rate cuts. His logic is quite clear—if GDP can stay at around 4%, then a rebound in employment is not a problem. But the growth in the third quarter mainly relied on inventory accumulation and temporary trade factors, while the employment market is quietly weakening. Once employment becomes a priority, coupled with policy adjustments from the new leadership, the trend of rate cuts will continue, just pushed back in time.

What does this mean for the crypto space? Essentially, rate cuts mean a decrease in global capital costs, which could lead more capital to flow into high-yield, high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The expectation of future rate cuts acts as a calming factor for the market, helping to suppress sharp declines. But right now? The dream of "rate cuts tomorrow" has been shattered, and market sentiment is inevitably more cautious, which also explains why recent trading atmosphere has been somewhat dull.

Looking at technical signals, Ethereum is currently oscillating around $2950. This level has a significant impact on short-term trends. If it can hold this support, a rebound is possible; if it breaks, the next key level may be tested. Overall, the macro outlook remains optimistic, but short-term sentiment is cautious, creating a low-entry opportunity window for patient traders.