#美联储回购协议计划 Bitcoin's current situation is a bit awkward — the weekly chart is stuck in a range with both upper shadows and bearish candles appearing, but no clear direction has been chosen yet.

Looking from above, the 94,000 level is a key resistance, with the upper boundary of the rectangle adding significant trend suppression. Don't expect a breakout to the upside before it happens. On the downside, there's the 85,000 ascending trendline — if this line holds, it indicates that the trend hasn't reversed, at most a retracement within the oscillation process. Overall, on the weekly level, it's a standard range-bound market with no big surprises.

The daily chart appears weaker. The Evening Star pattern has been established; if it continues to close lower, the Three Black Crows could form at any time. There’s still room for downside. Two key levels to watch: 85,200 (the lower boundary of the channel plus POC), and further down, the 84,000 rounded arc neckline. If there's a rebound, the midline of the channel at 90,500 will be the first barrier — don’t overestimate the rebound potential. Although MACD has crossed bullish, the momentum is clearly weakening, and RSI has already formed a death cross downward — such a structure makes rebounds more likely to turn into sharp declines, so chasing the rally isn't a good idea.

From a larger perspective, it's still a sideways upward channel, but the problem is that the price is now oscillating between the midline and the lower boundary of the channel, with a smaller timeframe also caught in a range. The key point is this crossroads — the price is stuck at the intersection of the descending trendline and the lower boundary of the channel, a typical decision point. If it rebounds, 89,300 (the midline of the small channel) is the first resistance, and only above that is 91,000 (the midline of the larger channel). But if the lower boundary of the large channel at 84,500 is effectively broken downward, the flag pattern is broken, and the outlook shifts to a continuation of the decline. On the technical side, MACD and RSI are both in death crosses downward; any rebound is just a correction, not a reversal.