Upstream costs double, but downstream companies dare not raise prices by a penny. Why? When customers hear the word "price increase," they turn and walk away. This kind of helplessness caught in the middle has recently been vividly played out in the lithium carbonate market.

Looking at the futures market, the price of lithium carbonate skyrockets, hitting new highs every day. But turning to the performance of mining companies' stocks, they are sluggish, with weak gains. This contrast confuses many—shouldn't the logic be like this?

Actually, it's very normal. The futures market, to put it simply, is just capital in rotation, chasing each other. Real-world transactions are different—they require face-to-face negotiations for every deal.

Energy storage is now extremely hot, but why? Because lithium was cheap a while ago, batteries were cheap, and users found it cost-effective. Now, with lithium prices artificially pushed up, battery costs also rise, and finally users realize—how many years will it take for this equipment to recoup through electricity savings? If this arithmetic can't be solved, demand instantly returns to the starting point.

This is a true reflection of price transmission: from upstream to downstream, it cannot be fully transferred immediately; it takes time to digest, and the market's psychological capacity is also needed.

The capital market has a classic evolution chain, repeatedly proven: Gold → Silver → Copper → Oil → Agriculture.

Gold first stirs, reflecting panic and expectations about the future. Silver follows closely, indicating funds are starting to flow from the financial sector into the real economy. When copper rises, factory furnaces truly ignite, confirming economic recovery. Then, oil—the "industrial blood"—begins to surge wildly, and inflation expectations are officially laid out. Finally, costs for fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and transportation all rise, and the fire will eventually reach every household's dining table—pork, grains, vegetables—all cannot escape.

Where is lithium carbonate currently positioned? It is at this critical "copper" node—rising amidst hesitation.

One leg has already stepped out, but the other is still probing downstream demand responses. It is waiting—waiting for oil to truly surge, waiting for all commodities to be forced to raise prices, waiting for everyone to become numb to price increases. Only then will its spring truly arrive.

And now? Just the prelude. The bullets still need to fly a little longer.