Six years of navigating the crypto world, growing an account from 8,000 to 1.2 million with only 30% position sizing and disciplined operations. It’s not about betting everything on a single shot, but about establishing a relatively stable trading system—maintaining an average monthly return of around 12%. Today, I’ll break down this framework for everyone’s reference.

**Position Management: You Can’t Die Even After 5 Mistakes**

Divide your capital into three parts, using only one-third each time. Set a stop-loss at 4%. A wrong judgment will only lose 1.3% of your total funds each time. Even if you hit five consecutive losses, the total loss is only 6.5%—the account can still survive. Conversely, set take-profit targets at over 8% for good trades. This win rate doesn’t need to be very high; even with only 50% success, compound interest will keep pushing you forward.

**Trend Judgment: How Important Is Following the Trend?**

Rebounds in a downtrend are often false signals, while pullbacks in an uptrend are genuine buying opportunities. Many people habitually buy the bottom, only to get caught repeatedly. Instead of gambling on the bottom, wait for clear trend signals before entering. This is a matter of probability, not a gambler’s mindset.

**Coin Selection: Beware of Short-Term Explosive Rises**

Whether it’s mainstream coins or small-cap tokens, rapid surges in the short term are hard to sustain. High-level stagnation often signals an upcoming correction. Many want to catch the last wave, but end up holding the bag. History repeatedly proves: the scythe always cuts faster than retail investors.

**Technical Analysis Reference: Using MACD**

When DIF and DEA cross above the 0 line and break through zero—consider opening a position. When MACD forms a death cross above zero and starts heading down—time to reduce your position. This system isn’t foolproof, but it’s a useful auxiliary tool for judgment.

**Averaging Down Traps: Never Add When Losing**

The concept of “averaging down” has harmed countless retail investors. Continuing to add to losing positions only deepens the trap. The correct approach is to add only when in profit, letting profits compound. Compromising on losing positions is equivalent to giving up.

**Volume Analysis: Price and Volume Must Match**

A sudden increase in volume after a low consolidation is worth noting. But if volume surges at a high level without further price increase—exit quickly. Divergence between volume and price is usually a risk warning.

**Moving Averages: Assess Trend Strength**

When the 5-day moving average turns upward, short-term momentum is positive; the 20-day moving average turning up indicates mid-term trend improvement; the 60-day moving average turning up suggests the main rally may start; the 100-day moving average turning up signals a long-term trend is truly established. Only trade coins in an uptrend—your chances of making money are significantly higher.

**Review Habit: Daily Must-Do**

Every night, review whether your current holdings’ logic still holds, whether the weekly trend aligns with expectations, and if there are signals of trend reversal. Adjust your strategy promptly instead of stubbornly sticking to a decision. The longer you maintain this habit, the more sensitive your market perception becomes.

Crypto markets are constantly changing. The key is to develop a systematic way of thinking, not to be fooled by short-term fluctuations, and to use discipline to combat human greed and fear.