The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in a row. Logically, the market should be excited, but instead, BTC keeps falling more and more. This is strange—are macro indicators really that worthless?

Actually, the issue isn't that simple. Many people confuse a fundamental concept: central banks cut nominal interest rates, but institutions actually pay attention to real interest rates. There's also the layer of inflation between the two.

More importantly, few people notice that rate cuts and liquidity are fundamentally not the same thing.

Every FOMC meeting releases rate cut decisions, dot plots, and officials' statements, all of which ultimately answer one question: "Will interest rates go down?" But the real question that determines asset prices is: "Will money actually flow out?" The latter they can't control directly; the market is the ultimate judge.

There are three logical links in this process, and none can be skipped:

The first layer is policy. Here, the focus is on whether the interest rate path is downward and whether the official stance has shifted from "controlling inflation" to "more easing." This part is relatively clear because the FOMC's position is straightforward.

But from policy signals to actual liquidity, two more hurdles need to be crossed. That's why every rate cut announcement triggers a rollercoaster market reaction—investors are waiting not for policy confirmation but to see if those two hurdles are cleared.

Whether money will truly start flowing is something policymakers can't decide outright. They can only adjust the interest rate framework; whether banks are willing to lend, companies are willing to borrow, and capital is willing to enter the market depends on the market itself.