A review of the epic options settlement market trends in previous years: volatility significantly amplified, often leading to accelerated unilateral trends

On December 26, 2023, at 16:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin will experience the largest annual delivery in history worth approximately $23.7 billion. Historically, market performance after seasonal deliveries is summarized as follows:

December 29, 2023 (Annual Major Delivery), with a nominal value of about $11 billion and a maximum pain point around $42,000.
Before expiration: The market is in a highly suppressed state, with prices trading narrowly between $42,000 and $43,000.
After expiration: The “cage” suppressing volatility disappears, and BTC quickly breaks out with increased volume over the following days, initiating a bullish trend towards $48,000 in early 2024.

March 29, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $15 billion and a maximum pain point around $65,000.
Before expiration: The market, influenced by Bitcoin halving expectations, oscillates between $60,000 and $70,000 with high volatility, and active hedging causes short-term suppression.
After expiration: Gamma hedging releases, BTC rapidly breaks upward, pushing the price above $70,000 just before halving, entering an acceleration phase of the bull market.

June 28, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $17 billion and a maximum pain point around $60,000.
Before expiration: The market enters a correction phase, with prices oscillating narrowly around $60,000, increased selling pressure, and a clear gamma pinning effect.
After expiration: Short-term volatility amplifies, BTC initially dips then rebounds, but overall maintains a correction trend without immediately entering a strong rally.

September 27, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $18 billion and a maximum pain point around $62,000.
Before expiration: Influenced by Federal Reserve policies, prices range between $55,000 and $65,000 with moderate liquidity, and hedging compresses the range.
After expiration: Post-settlement volatility increases, BTC breaks upward, benefiting from rate cut expectations, initiating a rebound towards $70,000.

December 27, 2024 (Annual Major Delivery), with a nominal value of about $19.8 billion and a maximum pain point around $75,000.
Before expiration: During the bull market peak, prices fluctuate between $70,000 and $80,000, with call options dominating, leading to weaker upward pressure, but holiday liquidity is thin.
After expiration: Hedging releases, BTC continues its bullish momentum, quickly surpassing $80,000, with year-end Christmas rally pushing prices higher.

March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $14 billion and a maximum pain point around $85,000.
Before expiration: Supported by regulatory positive news, prices oscillate between $80,000 and $90,000, with optimistic sentiment but short-term downside risks; gamma provides a floor.
After expiration: Volatility amplifies, BTC breaks above $85,000, initiating a strong rally towards $100,000.

June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $14.5 billion and a maximum pain point around $102,000.
Before expiration: Market sentiment is mixed, with large price fluctuations.
After expiration: Short-term correction occurs post-settlement, but the overall trend remains upward, without extreme volatility.

August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a nominal value of about $13.8-14.5 billion and a maximum pain point around $116,000.
Before expiration: Holiday liquidity is thin, prices hover around $110,000-$120,000, with an enhanced gamma trap effect.
After expiration: BTC briefly dips below the maximum pain point but quickly recovers, volatility increases but rebounds swiftly, continuing the bull market.

December 26, 2025 (Today’s Annual Major Delivery), with a nominal value of about $23.6 billion and a maximum pain point around $96,000.
Before expiration: Due to Christmas holiday thin market liquidity combined with rising precious metal prices, Bitcoin trades narrowly between $85,000 and $90,000, with strong gamma hedging suppressing volatility.
After expiration: It is expected that the “cage” will disappear, market volatility will significantly increase, and prices may break above the $90,000 range, with some analysts optimistic about approaching $100,000 or even starting a new year rally.