#TON

Discussions around Toncoin fluctuate between technical optimism and concerns over large holders (whales). Here are the main trends:

1. Analysts forecast a rebound to $2.50 based on RSI and MACD signals 🟢

2. Denial of rumors about a partnership with the UAE caused a 5% price drop 🔴

3. Growth of Layer-1 faces concerns due to the dominance of large holders ⚖️

4. Re-testing support in the $2.50–$2.80 range could be decisive 🎯

## Details

Year-end target — rebound to $2.50

**"TON could rise by 44-68% to $2.15–$2.50 by the end of December"**

– @bpaynews (2,010 followers · 750k+ views · Dec 24, 2025, 08:13 UTC)

**What does this mean:** Technical indicators (RSI 38.26 — oversold, bullish MACD crossover) suggest the possibility of a short-term recovery. However, sustained support above $1.50 is necessary for this.

: UAE denies TON residency program — negative for price

**"Price fell 5% after UAE authorities clarified that there is no deal with the golden visa"**

– @Community Post (1.2M+ views · Jul 8, 2025, 00:28 UTC)

**What does this mean:** Negative sentiment from the failed rumors of a partnership highlights TON’s sensitivity to ecosystem news. The price temporarily found support at $2.70, but trust remains questionable.

macroeconomic risks — mixed picture

**"Fundamental indicators for TON are strong, but the control of large holders (68% of supply) creates volatility risks"**

– @Nicat053nn (11,700 followers · 32k+ views · Dec 1, 2025, 14:50 UTC)

**What does this mean:** The situation is ambiguous — activity in dApps and DeFi is growing, but the dominance of large holders could lead to sharp price fluctuations. Network fees now go toward staking rewards (which is a positive factor), but the low percentage of long-term holders (20%) indicates weak investor confidence.

Re-testing support at $2.50–$2.80 — a key moment for growth

**"Previous reactions in this zone led to powerful upward breakthroughs"**

– @Community Post (890k+ views · May 7, 2025, 18:29 UTC)

**What does this mean:** If support holds, a breakout from the descending channel and over 30% growth are possible. If support fails, the price could fall to $2.20 (by December 2025).

## Conclusion

The overall opinion on Toncoin is divided — technical traders see potential for a rebound at key levels ($1.50 and $2.50), while macroeconomic risks (control of large holders, failed partnerships) limit growth. It is important to watch the resistance level at $2.15: a weekly close above this Fibonacci level will confirm a bullish structure, while a downward rebound could extend the decline by 74% over the year. Can the expansion of the Telegram ecosystem offset the challenges of the crypto winter?