Analysis: Bitcoin fails to hold the $90,000 level; the New Year market still awaits demand revival

On December 29, Bitcoin’s year-end rebound to $90,000 slowed down due to insufficient demand and weakening on-chain activity. Analysts point out that only when BTC re-establishes above $90,000 and demand recovers can a new upward cycle at the beginning of 2026 be initiated. Data shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand (market buy demand minus new sell supply) has turned negative, dropping to approximately -3,491 BTC, the lowest level since October, reflecting a risk-averse market during the year-end period. Meanwhile, the CEX premium index, which measures US investor sentiment, fell to -0.08, indicating that selling pressure in the US remains. Analysts warn that caution is needed in long positions until this indicator shows signs of recovery. On the institutional level, Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows last week amounted to about $782 million, further confirming a decline in institutional risk appetite. The market believes that a shift of ETF funds back to net inflows would be an important signal for a market restart. From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin currently holds above the $84,000 support level but has been blocked near $90,000 four times since mid-December. Analysts note that once the price effectively breaks through the $90,000–$92,000 range, upward momentum is expected to recover. Technically, some analysts have observed a potential hidden bullish divergence on the monthly chart, suggesting that if the monthly close is above $90,300, it will strengthen the bullish structure; if the breakout pattern is confirmed, the subsequent target could even point to $122,000.