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The market and manipulation logic in the crypto space have changed. Daily active users, trading volume, and TVL may not accurately reflect the reality anymore. Introducing a new metric: P2P (Peer-to-Peer Supply).
When evaluating projects in the crypto world, TVL is the easiest to be deceived by. Projects offer high APY liquidity mining, big players deposit money to "earn passively," and TVL instantly jumps to billions. But this money is dead; once mining is done, it’s withdrawn, creating no stickiness to the ecosystem.
If a chain’s daily active users and trading volume decline, does that mean it’s doomed? But within the same financial report, there’s a more critical signal:
P2P Stablecoin Supply. It measures the amount of money actually transferring, paying, and settling between wallets.
TVL represents how much money is lying around earning interest; P2P Supply represents how much money is actively engaged in business.
For example, take SEI. On the Sei chain, EVM daily active users dropped 26%, and trading volume fell 31%. However, Sei’s P2P stablecoin supply hit a new all-time high of $78.4 million. Since the beginning of this year, this figure has increased by 157%.
The decline in Sei’s EVM data indicates that the opportunists and speculators who profit from it have pulled out. But the new high in P2P data shows that genuine payment needs, transaction settlements, and capital flows have actually persisted.
Five years ago, we looked at public chains, focusing on who told the best story. Three years ago, we looked at public chains, focusing on who had the highest locked TVL.
Today, perhaps we should look at which chains are filled with active money.