According to CME's latest probability data on Federal Reserve policies, the market's expectation of a rate cut in January has completely cooled down. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 14.9%, while the chance of holding rates steady is as high as 85.1%.

In simple terms, we won't see a rate cut in January. The market's mainstream expectations, like your funds, are frozen solid.

This signal has a significant impact on crypto investors:

First, the imagination of short-term liquidity is gone. At the beginning of the year, many funds were counting on the central bank to loosen monetary policy and hoped for a "good start" rally. Now, this near-term expectation has basically fallen flat. This is equivalent to removing an important pillar of short-term market speculation. Large investors will be more cautious, preferring to wait rather than intervene impulsively.

Second, the high-interest-rate environment will continue to suppress risk assets. As long as the rate cut hasn't materialized, the logic of "high interest rates suppressing crypto assets" will persist. For Bitcoin, which relies on loose liquidity support, this is an ongoing background pressure.

More critically, the real game has been postponed. Everyone's focus now shifts from January to March and beyond. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be the real stage for the battle between bulls and bears.

Overall, the crypto market is entering a phase of "waiting for the next clear signal." Before the rate cut path becomes truly clear, don't expect a significant surge. What’s more likely is structural volatility and battles among chips. Mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL are all facing the same macroeconomic suppression in the short term.